Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation in the closely contested 5.00-5.49% band at 43.3% implied probability versus 4.50-4.99% at 35.6%, reflecting the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey median forecast of 4.86%—up from 4.80% last week—as unanchored expectations drift above the 3% target with ±1.5% tolerance. March IPCA accelerated to 4.14% year-over-year on fuel pressures, though mid-April IPCA-15 undershot forecasts at 4.37% annual, tempering upside risks amid restrictive Selic rates near 14.75%. Key differentiators include persistent food and energy volatility; upcoming Copom rate decision and full April CPI release could sway positioning toward sub-5% if disinflation resumes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5.00-5.49% 42.1%
4.50-4.99% 31.4%
6.00-6.49% 16.8%
5.50-5.99% 12.9%
$56,685 Vol.
$56,685 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
5%
3.00-3.49%
12%
3.50-3.99%
2%
4.00-4.49%
7%
4.50-4.99%
36%
5.00-5.49%
42%
5.50-5.99%
13%
6.00-6.49%
17%
6.50-6.99%
7%
7.00%+
15%
5.00-5.49% 42.1%
4.50-4.99% 31.4%
6.00-6.49% 16.8%
5.50-5.99% 12.9%
$56,685 Vol.
$56,685 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
$4,374 Vol.
5%
3.00-3.49%
$4,370 Vol.
12%
3.50-3.99%
$8,921 Vol.
2%
4.00-4.49%
$7,929 Vol.
7%
4.50-4.99%
$6,759 Vol.
36%
5.00-5.49%
$5,860 Vol.
42%
5.50-5.99%
$5,598 Vol.
13%
6.00-6.49%
$4,653 Vol.
17%
6.50-6.99%
$4,853 Vol.
7%
7.00%+
$3,368 Vol.
15%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation in the closely contested 5.00-5.49% band at 43.3% implied probability versus 4.50-4.99% at 35.6%, reflecting the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey median forecast of 4.86%—up from 4.80% last week—as unanchored expectations drift above the 3% target with ±1.5% tolerance. March IPCA accelerated to 4.14% year-over-year on fuel pressures, though mid-April IPCA-15 undershot forecasts at 4.37% annual, tempering upside risks amid restrictive Selic rates near 14.75%. Key differentiators include persistent food and energy volatility; upcoming Copom rate decision and full April CPI release could sway positioning toward sub-5% if disinflation resumes.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$56,685End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation in the closely contested 5.00-5.49% band at 43.3% implied probability versus 4.50-4.99% at 35.6%, reflecting the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey median forecast of 4.86%—up from 4.80% last week—as unanchored expectations drift above the 3% target with ±1.5% tolerance. March IPCA accelerated to 4.14% year-over-year on fuel pressures, though mid-April IPCA-15 undershot forecasts at 4.37% annual, tempering upside risks amid restrictive Selic rates near 14.75%. Key differentiators include persistent food and energy volatility; upcoming Copom rate decision and full April CPI release could sway positioning toward sub-5% if disinflation resumes.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$56,685End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation in the closely contested 5.00-5.49% band at 43.3% implied probability versus 4.50-4.99% at 35.6%, reflecting the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey median forecast of 4.86%—up from 4.80% last week—as unanchored expectations drift above the 3% target with ±1.5% tolerance. March IPCA accelerated to 4.14% year-over-year on fuel pressures, though mid-April IPCA-15 undershot forecasts at 4.37% annual, tempering upside risks amid restrictive Selic rates near 14.75%. Key differentiators include persistent food and energy volatility; upcoming Copom rate decision and full April CPI release could sway positioning toward sub-5% if disinflation resumes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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