"Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?" is a daily prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell shares on whether Bitcoin's price will finish higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than its opening price over the daily window specified in the title. The current market probability is 79% for "Up." A price of 79% means the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live Bitcoin price movements. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?" has generated $49.9K in total trading volume. Bitcoin Up or Down markets attract active traders reacting to live price movements in real time — this level of activity helps ensure the current Up/Down odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live prices and place a trade directly on this page.

To trade on "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?," decide whether you believe Bitcoin's price at noon ET on May 1 will be higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than Bitcoin's price at noon ET on April 30. Buy "Up" if you think the price will rise day-over-day, or "Down" if you think it will fall. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0.

The current probability for "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?" is 79% for "Up," meaning the Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 79% chance that Bitcoin's price will finish up over this daily window. These odds update in real-time as traders react to live Bitcoin price data. Over a full day, odds reflect evolving sentiment as the day's price action unfolds. Check back frequently or trade now before the window closes.

The "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?" market resolves based on a comparison of Bitcoin's price at noon ET on May 1 versus noon ET on April 30, using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close prices. If the May 1 noon price is higher, the outcome is "Up"; if lower, "Down"; if equal, the market resolves 50-50. You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the "Rules" section on this page.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. Each "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?" page shows real-time Up/Down probabilities reflecting trader sentiment on whether Bitcoin will be higher or lower at noon ET tomorrow versus today. Use the date navigation features at the top of the page to browse past and upcoming daily windows. You can also view the Order Book and Activity tab for a real-time feed of trade flow.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs. With $49.9K traded on “Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?,” the Up/Down probabilities reflect the collective judgment of traders watching Bitcoin’s live price in real time. For daily markets like this one, the odds represent an instantaneous crowd consensus on Bitcoin’s price momentum — most meaningful as the window approaches its close, when traders have the most current price information available. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s overall prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page — or navigate to the current active daily window using the navigation bar at the top of the page — select "Buy Up" or "Buy Down," enter your amount, and click "Trade." If the window shown in the title has already closed, use the navigation bar to find the current live window. If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 79¢ for "Up" in the "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 79% chance that Bitcoin's price will finish up over this daily window. If you buy "Up" shares at 79¢ and Bitcoin finishes in that direction, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 21¢ per share. If Bitcoin moves the other way, those shares are worth $0. Prices can shift throughout the day as Bitcoin's price action unfolds toward the noon ET close.

The "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?" market is live and resolves at Noon ET May 1 — approximately about 9 hours from now. Trading is open. The Up/Down odds will continue shifting in real time as Bitcoin's price moves and traders react. Once the window closes, the market resolves based on whether Bitcoin's Binance price at noon ET on May 1 is higher or lower than at noon ET on April 30.

The "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?" market has 6,778 comments where traders share their analysis and react to live Bitcoin price movements. Scroll down to the comments section to read what other participants think. You can also check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades on this window.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture — including daily Bitcoin direction markets like "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.