England, Croatia, Ghana, and Panama enter Group L with no matches played, leaving last-place probabilities shaped by pre-tournament rankings, squad depth, and recent form under new or established management. Panama, ranked lowest among the quartet, sits near the top of implied probabilities for finishing bottom due to limited attacking options and defensive vulnerabilities exposed in qualifiers. Ghana trails closely amid a transitional phase under Carlos Queiroz, while Croatia’s experience provides a buffer that lowers its last-place odds. England’s superior resources and attacking output keep its bottom-finish chances minimal. The tight clustering around 48–50% reflects ongoing uncertainty over which of the two weakest sides will concede the most goals across the three fixtures, with head-to-head history and travel factors adding further variability ahead of the June 17 opener.