New Zealand enters Group G as the clear underdog based on FIFA rankings and limited recent international success against stronger sides, driving trader consensus toward a 54% implied probability it finishes last. Egypt and Iran sit close behind at around 50% each due to inconsistent qualifying campaigns and questions over key player availability heading into the June 15 opener, while Belgium’s superior depth and experience leave it with just a 7% chance of propping up the table. The tight clustering among the top three outcomes reflects the group’s overall parity and the absence of any completed matches, leaving room for early results or roster developments to shift implied probabilities quickly before the final group fixtures conclude on June 26.