Rising component costs for memory and storage, driven by ongoing supply shortages, represent the main catalyst behind the 92% market-implied odds that the Steam Machine will launch at $700 or higher. Recent delays announced by Valve, coupled with reports of bill-of-materials estimates exceeding $700 before margins and the company's decision not to subsidize hardware like traditional consoles, have reinforced trader consensus around elevated pricing for the AMD-powered SteamOS device. While leaks point to potential MSRP figures starting near $950 for base models, realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include last-minute cost optimizations, strategic loss-leading to boost Steam ecosystem adoption, or revised configurations that bring the entry point below the threshold.