Early-season forecasts from Colorado State University and others project a slightly below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and just two major (Category 3+) systems, driving the 65% market-implied probability for no Category 4 landfall on the US mainland before 2027. This outlook stems from weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño by summer (61% NOAA chance), which boosts upper-level wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation and intensification over the Atlantic basin. The 2025 season featured three Category 5 hurricanes but none reached the US Gulf or East Coast, with only Tropical Storm Chantal making landfall—the first year without US hurricane strikes since 2015. Historical data shows Category 4 US landfalls (130-156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) occur roughly once every 3-4 years on average. NOAA's May outlook and initial model runs will refine probabilities as the June 1 start nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Algún huracán de categoría 4 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
¿Algún huracán de categoría 4 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
Sí
$326,297 Vol.
$326,297 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$326,297 Vol.
$326,297 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Early-season forecasts from Colorado State University and others project a slightly below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and just two major (Category 3+) systems, driving the 65% market-implied probability for no Category 4 landfall on the US mainland before 2027. This outlook stems from weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño by summer (61% NOAA chance), which boosts upper-level wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation and intensification over the Atlantic basin. The 2025 season featured three Category 5 hurricanes but none reached the US Gulf or East Coast, with only Tropical Storm Chantal making landfall—the first year without US hurricane strikes since 2015. Historical data shows Category 4 US landfalls (130-156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) occur roughly once every 3-4 years on average. NOAA's May outlook and initial model runs will refine probabilities as the June 1 start nears.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$326,297Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Early-season forecasts from Colorado State University and others project a slightly below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and just two major (Category 3+) systems, driving the 65% market-implied probability for no Category 4 landfall on the US mainland before 2027. This outlook stems from weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño by summer (61% NOAA chance), which boosts upper-level wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation and intensification over the Atlantic basin. The 2025 season featured three Category 5 hurricanes but none reached the US Gulf or East Coast, with only Tropical Storm Chantal making landfall—the first year without US hurricane strikes since 2015. Historical data shows Category 4 US landfalls (130-156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) occur roughly once every 3-4 years on average. NOAA's May outlook and initial model runs will refine probabilities as the June 1 start nears.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$326,297Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Early-season forecasts from Colorado State University and others project a slightly below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and just two major (Category 3+) systems, driving the 65% market-implied probability for no Category 4 landfall on the US mainland before 2027. This outlook stems from weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño by summer (61% NOAA chance), which boosts upper-level wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation and intensification over the Atlantic basin. The 2025 season featured three Category 5 hurricanes but none reached the US Gulf or East Coast, with only Tropical Storm Chantal making landfall—the first year without US hurricane strikes since 2015. Historical data shows Category 4 US landfalls (130-156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) occur roughly once every 3-4 years on average. NOAA's May outlook and initial model runs will refine probabilities as the June 1 start nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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