Tom Aspinall sits atop trader consensus as reigning UFC heavyweight champion—promoted undisputed after Jon Jones' 2025 retirement—but his 50% implied probability reflects an eye injury sidelining him since a no-contest title defense against Ciryl Gane earlier this year, delaying defenses and fueling doubt. Serghei Spivac's surge to 44.1% stems from recent submission victories over Ante Delija (February 2026) and Waldo Cortes-Acosta, positioning the grappler as a stylistic nightmare for strikers amid Aspinall's absence. Jailton Almeida (43%) and Derrick Lewis (37.2%) highlight the division's parity, with Almeida's elite jiu-jitsu and Lewis' one-punch knockout power offering upset paths in a crowded contender field lacking a clear dominator through December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTom Aspinall 54%
Derrick Lewis 36.2%
Ante Delija 35.1%
Sergei Pavlovich 27.0%
$96,554 Vol.
$96,554 Vol.
Tom Aspinall
42%
Derrick Lewis
36%
Ante Delija
35%
Sergei Pavlovich
27%
Jailton Almeida
27%
Ciryl Gane
20%
Curtis Blaydes
19%
Marcin Tybura
2%
Serghei Spivac
42%
Alexander Volkov
34%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
31%
Tom Aspinall 54%
Derrick Lewis 36.2%
Ante Delija 35.1%
Sergei Pavlovich 27.0%
$96,554 Vol.
$96,554 Vol.
Tom Aspinall
42%
Derrick Lewis
36%
Ante Delija
35%
Sergei Pavlovich
27%
Jailton Almeida
27%
Ciryl Gane
20%
Curtis Blaydes
19%
Marcin Tybura
2%
Serghei Spivac
42%
Alexander Volkov
34%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
31%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tom Aspinall sits atop trader consensus as reigning UFC heavyweight champion—promoted undisputed after Jon Jones' 2025 retirement—but his 50% implied probability reflects an eye injury sidelining him since a no-contest title defense against Ciryl Gane earlier this year, delaying defenses and fueling doubt. Serghei Spivac's surge to 44.1% stems from recent submission victories over Ante Delija (February 2026) and Waldo Cortes-Acosta, positioning the grappler as a stylistic nightmare for strikers amid Aspinall's absence. Jailton Almeida (43%) and Derrick Lewis (37.2%) highlight the division's parity, with Almeida's elite jiu-jitsu and Lewis' one-punch knockout power offering upset paths in a crowded contender field lacking a clear dominator through December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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