Weather uncertainty around thunderstorms and lightning for the June 14 outdoor card at the White House South Lawn keeps the market balanced near even odds. Forecasts through midweek showed elevated rain and storm chances during main card hours, prompting concerns over potential evacuations or postponements if lightning strikes within the monitored radius, though a temporary canopy protects the Octagon and officials have confirmed fights can proceed through moderate rain or heat. Recent model shifts toward drier evening conditions with highs near 90°F and lighter winds have eased some pressure, leaving traders weighing the narrow window for changes in the four days remaining. Any late forecast deterioration or confirmed lightning protocol activation could quickly shift sentiment toward delay.