Tom Aspinall sits atop trader consensus as reigning UFC heavyweight champion—promoted undisputed after Jon Jones' 2025 retirement—but his 50% implied probability reflects an eye injury sidelining him since a no-contest title defense against Ciryl Gane earlier this year, delaying defenses and fueling doubt. Serghei Spivac's surge to 44.1% stems from recent submission victories over Ante Delija (February 2026) and Waldo Cortes-Acosta, positioning the grappler as a stylistic nightmare for strikers amid Aspinall's absence. Jailton Almeida (43%) and Derrick Lewis (37.2%) highlight the division's parity, with Almeida's elite jiu-jitsu and Lewis' one-punch knockout power offering upset paths in a crowded contender field lacking a clear dominator through December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTom Aspinall 40%
Jailton Almeida 37.5%
Derrick Lewis 37.0%
Ante Delija 36.6%
$96,554 Vol.
$96,554 Vol.
Tom Aspinall
40%
Jailton Almeida
38%
Derrick Lewis
37%
Ante Delija
37%
Sergei Pavlovich
29%
Ciryl Gane
22%
Curtis Blaydes
17%
Marcin Tybura
2%
Serghei Spivac
44%
Alexander Volkov
36%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
32%
Tom Aspinall 40%
Jailton Almeida 37.5%
Derrick Lewis 37.0%
Ante Delija 36.6%
$96,554 Vol.
$96,554 Vol.
Tom Aspinall
40%
Jailton Almeida
38%
Derrick Lewis
37%
Ante Delija
37%
Sergei Pavlovich
29%
Ciryl Gane
22%
Curtis Blaydes
17%
Marcin Tybura
2%
Serghei Spivac
44%
Alexander Volkov
36%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
32%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tom Aspinall sits atop trader consensus as reigning UFC heavyweight champion—promoted undisputed after Jon Jones' 2025 retirement—but his 50% implied probability reflects an eye injury sidelining him since a no-contest title defense against Ciryl Gane earlier this year, delaying defenses and fueling doubt. Serghei Spivac's surge to 44.1% stems from recent submission victories over Ante Delija (February 2026) and Waldo Cortes-Acosta, positioning the grappler as a stylistic nightmare for strikers amid Aspinall's absence. Jailton Almeida (43%) and Derrick Lewis (37.2%) highlight the division's parity, with Almeida's elite jiu-jitsu and Lewis' one-punch knockout power offering upset paths in a crowded contender field lacking a clear dominator through December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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