Current leaderboard data shows top large language models clustered just above 1500 Elo on the Chatbot Arena, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants holding the highest marks near 1510, followed closely by OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. This narrow gap, combined with incremental gains rather than sudden leaps since early 2026 releases, underpins the strong market consensus that no model will reach the 1550 threshold by year-end. Anthropic’s edge in recent agentic and reasoning-focused updates positions it as the clearest contender if further gains materialize before December, while slower observed progress across labs supports elevated probability for the “none” outcome. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model refreshes or capability jumps ahead of typical fall release windows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNinguno en 2026 73%
Anthropic 25%
Google 4.0%
OpenAI 2.7%
$78,645 Vol.
$78,645 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Ninguno en 2026
73%
Anthropic
25%
4%
OpenAI
3%
Mistral
<1%
xAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Ninguno en 2026 73%
Anthropic 25%
Google 4.0%
OpenAI 2.7%
$78,645 Vol.
$78,645 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Ninguno en 2026
$17,626 Vol.
73%
Anthropic
$9,840 Vol.
25%
$9,340 Vol.
4%
OpenAI
$10,398 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$6,301 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$6,815 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$7,112 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$6,463 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$4,749 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Current leaderboard data shows top large language models clustered just above 1500 Elo on the Chatbot Arena, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants holding the highest marks near 1510, followed closely by OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. This narrow gap, combined with incremental gains rather than sudden leaps since early 2026 releases, underpins the strong market consensus that no model will reach the 1550 threshold by year-end. Anthropic’s edge in recent agentic and reasoning-focused updates positions it as the clearest contender if further gains materialize before December, while slower observed progress across labs supports elevated probability for the “none” outcome. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model refreshes or capability jumps ahead of typical fall release windows.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volumen
$78,645Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Current leaderboard data shows top large language models clustered just above 1500 Elo on the Chatbot Arena, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants holding the highest marks near 1510, followed closely by OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. This narrow gap, combined with incremental gains rather than sudden leaps since early 2026 releases, underpins the strong market consensus that no model will reach the 1550 threshold by year-end. Anthropic’s edge in recent agentic and reasoning-focused updates positions it as the clearest contender if further gains materialize before December, while slower observed progress across labs supports elevated probability for the “none” outcome. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model refreshes or capability jumps ahead of typical fall release windows.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volumen
$78,645Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current leaderboard data shows top large language models clustered just above 1500 Elo on the Chatbot Arena, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants holding the highest marks near 1510, followed closely by OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. This narrow gap, combined with incremental gains rather than sudden leaps since early 2026 releases, underpins the strong market consensus that no model will reach the 1550 threshold by year-end. Anthropic’s edge in recent agentic and reasoning-focused updates positions it as the clearest contender if further gains materialize before December, while slower observed progress across labs supports elevated probability for the “none” outcome. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model refreshes or capability jumps ahead of typical fall release windows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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