Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism about any AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, with "None" at a 56.5% implied probability, as top scores hover around 1505—led by Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking released April 16—marking a plateau after years of rapid gains from 1094 in 2023. Anthropic commands 33.5% due to its dominance, holding four of the top five spots amid superior benchmarks like 80.8% on SWE-bench, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 propelled it into the top 10 quickly but faces leaderboard lag from vote accumulation. Google trails closely with Gemini previews, but scaling challenges and compute constraints temper expectations for a 45-point leap soon, with Q2 earnings and developer conferences as key catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNinguno en 2026 57%
Anthropic 34%
Google 8%
OpenAI 7%
$40,928 Vol.
$40,928 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Ninguno en 2026
57%
Anthropic
34%
8%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
3%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Ninguno en 2026 57%
Anthropic 34%
Google 8%
OpenAI 7%
$40,928 Vol.
$40,928 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Ninguno en 2026
$6,592 Vol.
57%
Anthropic
$5,693 Vol.
34%
$5,851 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$6,265 Vol.
7%
xAI
$4,486 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$2,747 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$3,283 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$3,092 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$2,918 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism about any AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, with "None" at a 56.5% implied probability, as top scores hover around 1505—led by Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking released April 16—marking a plateau after years of rapid gains from 1094 in 2023. Anthropic commands 33.5% due to its dominance, holding four of the top five spots amid superior benchmarks like 80.8% on SWE-bench, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 propelled it into the top 10 quickly but faces leaderboard lag from vote accumulation. Google trails closely with Gemini previews, but scaling challenges and compute constraints temper expectations for a 45-point leap soon, with Q2 earnings and developer conferences as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volumen
$40,928Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism about any AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, with "None" at a 56.5% implied probability, as top scores hover around 1505—led by Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking released April 16—marking a plateau after years of rapid gains from 1094 in 2023. Anthropic commands 33.5% due to its dominance, holding four of the top five spots amid superior benchmarks like 80.8% on SWE-bench, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 propelled it into the top 10 quickly but faces leaderboard lag from vote accumulation. Google trails closely with Gemini previews, but scaling challenges and compute constraints temper expectations for a 45-point leap soon, with Q2 earnings and developer conferences as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volumen
$40,928Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism about any AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, with "None" at a 56.5% implied probability, as top scores hover around 1505—led by Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking released April 16—marking a plateau after years of rapid gains from 1094 in 2023. Anthropic commands 33.5% due to its dominance, holding four of the top five spots amid superior benchmarks like 80.8% on SWE-bench, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 propelled it into the top 10 quickly but faces leaderboard lag from vote accumulation. Google trails closely with Gemini previews, but scaling challenges and compute constraints temper expectations for a 45-point leap soon, with Q2 earnings and developer conferences as key catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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