Trader consensus favors Nicolás Maduro at 66% implied probability to remain Venezuela's head of state by December 31, 2026, despite his January 3 capture by U.S. forces and ongoing detention in New York facing charges, as the United Nations and some international bodies continue recognizing him officially amid transitional ambiguity. Delcy Rodríguez holds 20% odds as acting president via Supreme Court decree, navigating U.S. reform demands under the Trump administration against Chavista hardliner resistance, with reports in April noting modest liberalizations but no new elections. Opposition leader María Corina Machado trails at 9%, backed for future votes yet facing institutional barriers, as National Assembly head Jorge Rodríguez rejected snap presidential polls in February, prolonging uncertainty without scheduled transitions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Líder de Venezuela a finales de 2026?
¿Líder de Venezuela a finales de 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 65.7%
Delcy Rodríguez 20%
María Corina Machado 9%
Jorge Rodríguez <1%
$86,386,762 Vol.
$86,386,762 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Nicolás Maduro
66%
Delcy Rodríguez
20%
María Corina Machado
9%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Sin jefe de Estado
1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Edmundo González
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 65.7%
Delcy Rodríguez 20%
María Corina Machado 9%
Jorge Rodríguez <1%
$86,386,762 Vol.
$86,386,762 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$1,496,086 Vol.
66%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,553,161 Vol.
20%
María Corina Machado
$1,019,414 Vol.
9%
Jorge Rodríguez
$975,703 Vol.
1%
Sin jefe de Estado
$946,886 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$762,036 Vol.
<1%
Edmundo González
$716,181 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$883,635 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$648,806 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,189,167 Vol.
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$1,576,082 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$4,850,455 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$8,400,441 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$24,965,200 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$31,959,843 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$3,443,666 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Trader consensus favors Nicolás Maduro at 66% implied probability to remain Venezuela's head of state by December 31, 2026, despite his January 3 capture by U.S. forces and ongoing detention in New York facing charges, as the United Nations and some international bodies continue recognizing him officially amid transitional ambiguity. Delcy Rodríguez holds 20% odds as acting president via Supreme Court decree, navigating U.S. reform demands under the Trump administration against Chavista hardliner resistance, with reports in April noting modest liberalizations but no new elections. Opposition leader María Corina Machado trails at 9%, backed for future votes yet facing institutional barriers, as National Assembly head Jorge Rodríguez rejected snap presidential polls in February, prolonging uncertainty without scheduled transitions.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volumen
$86,386,762Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Trader consensus favors Nicolás Maduro at 66% implied probability to remain Venezuela's head of state by December 31, 2026, despite his January 3 capture by U.S. forces and ongoing detention in New York facing charges, as the United Nations and some international bodies continue recognizing him officially amid transitional ambiguity. Delcy Rodríguez holds 20% odds as acting president via Supreme Court decree, navigating U.S. reform demands under the Trump administration against Chavista hardliner resistance, with reports in April noting modest liberalizations but no new elections. Opposition leader María Corina Machado trails at 9%, backed for future votes yet facing institutional barriers, as National Assembly head Jorge Rodríguez rejected snap presidential polls in February, prolonging uncertainty without scheduled transitions.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volumen
$86,386,762Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Nicolás Maduro at 66% implied probability to remain Venezuela's head of state by December 31, 2026, despite his January 3 capture by U.S. forces and ongoing detention in New York facing charges, as the United Nations and some international bodies continue recognizing him officially amid transitional ambiguity. Delcy Rodríguez holds 20% odds as acting president via Supreme Court decree, navigating U.S. reform demands under the Trump administration against Chavista hardliner resistance, with reports in April noting modest liberalizations but no new elections. Opposition leader María Corina Machado trails at 9%, backed for future votes yet facing institutional barriers, as National Assembly head Jorge Rodríguez rejected snap presidential polls in February, prolonging uncertainty without scheduled transitions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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