Trader sentiment on whether UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer departs office reflects mounting pressure from the April 2026 scandal over his appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington, despite failed security vetting and reported Epstein associations, prompting accusations he misled Parliament. Opposition leaders from Conservatives, SNP, and Liberal Democrats have called for a no-confidence vote, though Labour's Commons majority blocked referral to the Privileges Committee. Cabinet ministers publicly back Starmer amid dismal Labour polling, but internal unrest grows from the party left demanding a policy reset and restless MPs eyeing leadership challenges post-May 7 local elections in England and devolved contests in Scotland and Wales, which could trigger his exit via resignation or party revolt.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoiNews analysis warns Starmer is too weak to stage a reshuffle after the upcoming local elections, citing Angela Rayner’s potential challenge and the risk of backbench rebellion
May 15 dips to 8%3%
iNews analysis warns Starmer is too weak to stage a reshuffle after the upcoming local elections, citing Angela Rayner’s potential challenge and the risk of backbench rebellion
Downing Street confirms Starmer will stay Prime Minister beyond the current Parliament – The Independent reported an official Downing Street statement that Starmer will remain in
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Downing Street confirms Starmer will stay Prime Minister beyond the current Parliament – The Independent reported an official Downing Street statement that Starmer will remain in office “throughout this Parliament and beyond,” providing the final reassurance that eliminated any remaining probability of his departure before the market’s cut‑off.
Polymarket data shows “May 15” odds falling to 8 % as the market absorbs the Burnham decision and Starmer’s renewed cabinet support
May 15 drops to 8%10%
The platform’s updated odds reflected traders’ belief that the immediate threat had receded, driving the
BBC analysis reports Starmer “sees off” the Mandelson inquiry, noting the Labour party appears “pretty together for now” and the immediate threat has eased
May 15 rises to 9%1%
BBC analysis reports Starmer “sees off” the Mandelson inquiry, noting the Labour party appears “pretty together for now” and the immediate threat has eased
BBC News reports that no parliamentary motion or leadership challenge is scheduled for the coming week, and Starmer’s government survives a confidence‑vote, effectively ending the
BBC News reports that no parliamentary motion or leadership challenge is scheduled for the coming week, and Starmer’s government survives a confidence‑vote, effectively ending the short‑term risk of his removal
Market reaches 0 With no credible resignation news and the cumulative effect of the Mandelson scandal and Robbins dismissal, the market
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Market reaches 0 With no credible resignation news and the cumulative effect of the Mandelson scandal and Robbins dismissal, the market
Fact‑check: Supreme Court did not order Starmer to resign – Reuters fact‑check clarified that the UK Supreme Court has no power to force a Prime Minister’s resignation and had
April 30 dips to 1%3%
Fact‑check: Supreme Court did not order Starmer to resign – Reuters fact‑check clarified that the UK Supreme Court has no power to force a Prime Minister’s resignation and had made no such order, quashing a viral claim that could have triggered a market spike toward “Yes”.
ABC News confirms Parliament’s final vote against an inquiry into Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson appointment, cementing his survival and pushing the market’s “Yes”
April 30 dips to 0%3%
ABC News confirms Parliament’s final vote against an inquiry into Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson appointment, cementing his survival and pushing the market’s “Yes” probability to 0 %
BBC live feed shows Starmer leaving Downing Street for Parliament, signalling he is still in charge despite mounting pressure
May 15 drops to 8%10%
BBC live feed shows Starmer leaving Downing Street for Parliament, signalling he is still in charge despite mounting pressure
During PMQs, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch presses Starmer on whether he will reshuffle Chancellor Rachel Reeves;
May 15 drops to 11%7%
Starmer refuses to guarantee her job, implying she may be “toast”
Live PMQs show Starmer surviving a “bruising” Commons day as backbench pressure eases – The Guardian’s briefing noted that despite intense scrutiny, Starmer emerged unscathed from
Live PMQs show Starmer surviving a “bruising” Commons day as backbench pressure eases – The Guardian’s briefing noted that despite intense scrutiny, Starmer emerged unscathed from the session, confirming that no immediate parliamentary action would force him out.
Reuters fact‑check confirms the Supreme Court never ordered Starmer to resign, debunking a viral claim that had briefly revived market optimism for a “Yes” outcome
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Reuters fact‑check confirms the Supreme Court never ordered Starmer to resign, debunking a viral claim that had briefly revived market optimism for a “Yes” outcome
Reuters fact‑check debunks a viral claim that the Supreme Court ordered Starmer to resign, removing a false “resignation trigger” and confirming the market’s move to 0% Yes
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Reuters fact‑check debunks a viral claim that the Supreme Court ordered Starmer to resign, removing a false “resignation trigger” and confirming the market’s move to 0% Yes
No resignation announcement; Labour MPs publicly back Starmer Following a series of cabinet‑level resignations earlier in the month, senior Labour figures reiterated their
April 30 dips to 1%1%
No resignation announcement; Labour MPs publicly back Starmer Following a series of cabinet‑level resignations earlier in the month, senior Labour figures reiterated their confidence in Starmer, leaving traders with no trigger for a “Yes” outcome
UK parliament votes against launching an inquiry into Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson appointment – The decisive vote removed the immediate threat of a parliamentary probe,
April 30 drops to 0%6%
UK parliament votes against launching an inquiry into Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson appointment – The decisive vote removed the immediate threat of a parliamentary probe, sending the market’s “Yes” probability to zero and effectively ending the risk of a resignation before the market’s end date.
Starmer blocks a Tory‑led attempt to refer him to the Privileges Committee over the Mandelson vetting scandal, further exposing internal fractures (no change, but reinforced
Starmer blocks a Tory‑led attempt to refer him to the Privileges Committee over the Mandelson vetting scandal, further exposing internal fractures (no change, but reinforced downward trend)
Downing Street declares Starmer will remain Prime Minister beyond the current Parliament – The Standard reported an official statement that Starmer will stay in office, removing
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Downing Street declares Starmer will remain Prime Minister beyond the current Parliament – The Standard reported an official statement that Starmer will stay in office, removing any credible trigger for a resignation and pushing the market
MPs vote 223 for – 335 against referring Starmer to the Privileges Committee, decisively rejecting the opposition’s bid to launch an inquiry
April 30 dips to 5%3%
MPs vote 223 for – 335 against referring Starmer to the Privileges Committee, decisively rejecting the opposition’s bid to launch an inquiry
ITV reports the Commons vote outcome and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s warning that Labour MPs will “rue the day” they blocked the referral, underscoring the political stakes
April 30 dips to 3%2%
ITV reports the Commons vote outcome and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s warning that Labour MPs will “rue the day” they blocked the referral, underscoring the political stakes
Reuters fact‑check debunks viral claims that the Supreme Court ordered Starmer to resign, removing a false “immediate resignation” narrative
May 15 drops to 18%7%
Reuters fact‑check debunks viral claims that the Supreme Court ordered Starmer to resign, removing a false “immediate resignation” narrative
Reuters reports Parliament will vote on a possible inquiry into whether Starmer misled the Commons over the Mandelson appointment – Anticipation of a damaging inquiry briefly
April 30 jumps to 6%5%
Reuters reports Parliament will vote on a possible inquiry into whether Starmer misled the Commons over the Mandelson appointment – Anticipation of a damaging inquiry briefly revived “Yes” odds, producing the small rebound seen on April 23‑25.
Starmer rallies cabinet, whips and former PM Gordon Brown to shore up Labour support ahead of the Mandelson vote, describing the day as “critical” for his premiership
April 30 dips to 10%1%
Starmer rallies cabinet, whips and former PM Gordon Brown to shore up Labour support ahead of the Mandelson vote, describing the day as “critical” for his premiership
Parliament schedules vote on a possible Privileges Committee inquiry into whether Starmer misled the House over Peter Mandelson’s appointment
April 30 dips to 11%2%
Parliament schedules vote on a possible Privileges Committee inquiry into whether Starmer misled the House over Peter Mandelson’s appointment
Starmer urges Labour MPs to “stick together” ahead of critical Privileges Committee vote – In a televised address, Starmer called for unity as the standards investigation loomed,
Starmer urges Labour MPs to “stick together” ahead of critical Privileges Committee vote – In a televised address, Starmer called for unity as the standards investigation loomed, reinforcing party cohesion and dampening speculation of a resignation.
Starmer repeats that “vast majority” of Labour MPs want him to stay on as prime minister in a Metro interview – The repeated claim of strong party support further eroded “Yes”
April 30 dips to 1%2%
Starmer repeats that “vast majority” of Labour MPs want him to stay on as prime minister in a Metro interview – The repeated claim of strong party support further eroded “Yes” sentiment, pushing the
Starmer begins three‑day strategic visit to China While intended to boost trade, the trip was framed by media as a distraction from the domestic crisis, and no new
April 30 dips to 2%2%
Starmer begins three‑day strategic visit to China While intended to boost trade, the trip was framed by media as a distraction from the domestic crisis, and no new leadership‑change narrative emerged, reinforcing market belief that Starmer would stay in office
Starmer survives Commons vote on Privileges Committee referral despite 15 Labour rebels voting against him – Labour MPs defied a three‑line whip and voted to refer Starmer to the
April 30 dips to 1%4%
Starmer survives Commons vote on Privileges Committee referral despite 15 Labour rebels voting against him – Labour MPs defied a three‑line whip and voted to refer Starmer to the Privileges Committee, but Downing Street’s heavy whipping forced the motion down, signalling that the government could still block an inquiry and keep Starmer in post.
Andy Burnham blocked by the Labour NEC from standing in the Gorton & Denton by‑election
May 15 drops to 18%6%
BD News24 reported the NEC vote (8‑1) that kept Burnham out of Parliament, removing a potential leadership challenger and pushing the
Prime Minister Starmer delivers a televised address defending his record and denying any wrongdoing, which steadies the market after a prior decline 【10†L1-L4]
June 30 jumps to 48%8%
Prime Minister Starmer delivers a televised address defending his record and denying any wrongdoing, which steadies the market after a prior decline 【10†L1-L4]
The Telegraph (via i Paper) reveals “live discussions” in the Cabinet about when to tell Starmer to quit, but the talks remain private and no public demand is made, dampening
The Telegraph (via i Paper) reveals “live discussions” in the Cabinet about when to tell Starmer to quit, but the talks remain private and no public demand is made, dampening speculation
Guardian reports that Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, adding fresh pressure from within the party and pushing odds toward zero
April 30 dips to 1%1%
Guardian reports that Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, adding fresh pressure from within the party and pushing odds toward zero
i News reports “secret cabinet talks” on who should tell Starmer to resign, suggesting an organized push but no immediate action
May 15 drops to 25%5%
i News reports “secret cabinet talks” on who should tell Starmer to resign, suggesting an organized push but no immediate action
Daily Mail reports that Starmer has told allies he does not want a reshuffle, despite pressure from his political director and chief whip, suggesting the cabinet shake‑up may be
May 15 drops to 18%7%
Daily Mail reports that Starmer has told allies he does not want a reshuffle, despite pressure from his political director and chief whip, suggesting the cabinet shake‑up may be postponed
Ipsos poll shows half of Britons now think Starmer should step down, pushing “Yes” back up
June 30 surges to 42%19%
Ipsos poll shows half of Britons now think Starmer should step down, pushing “Yes” back up
Starmer survives a Labour rebellion over a proposed parliamentary inquiry into Peter Mandelson’s appointment, but the vote shows his dwindling political capital
May 15 drops to 25%5%
Starmer survives a Labour rebellion over a proposed parliamentary inquiry into Peter Mandelson’s appointment, but the vote shows his dwindling political capital
Starmer denies any No 10 pressure on former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins over the Mandelson vetting, trying to contain the scandal
May 15 drops to 30%5%
Starmer denies any No 10 pressure on former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins over the Mandelson vetting, trying to contain the scandal
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Starmer to quit;
June 30 drops to 42%13%
Guardian reports mounting pressure from within Labour
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, prompting media focus on internal dissent – The fresh leadership‑challenge rumour caused a modest dip as traders
April 30 dips to 3%3%
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, prompting media focus on internal dissent – The fresh leadership‑challenge rumour caused a modest dip as traders
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, reigniting speculation and lifting the
June 30 jumps to 46%8%
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, reigniting speculation and lifting the
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting row The Prime Minister removed Robbins after it emerged the Foreign Office had over‑ruled
April 30 dips to 4%3%
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting row The Prime Minister removed Robbins after it emerged the Foreign Office had over‑ruled the security‑vetting denial on Mandelson, intensifying the perception that Starmer’s government was mis‑managing senior appointments
Guardian live‑blog reports that SNP chief whip Kirsty Blackman cites a Daily Mail leak that Starmer may fire Chancellor Rachel Reeves, fueling rumours of a major shake‑up
May 15 drops to 30%5%
Guardian live‑blog reports that SNP chief whip Kirsty Blackman cites a Daily Mail leak that Starmer may fire Chancellor Rachel Reeves, fueling rumours of a major shake‑up
Labour MP publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, but party leadership backs him – The Guardian live‑blog noted a backbench MP urging Starmer to quit, yet highlighted that the
April 30 dips to 4%3%
Labour MP publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, but party leadership backs him – The Guardian live‑blog noted a backbench MP urging Starmer to quit, yet highlighted that the majority of Labour MPs and senior ministers continued to publicly support him, signalling no coordinated move to remove him.
Labour MPs publicly demand the sacking of Ed Miliband ahead of a rumored reshuffle, intensifying speculation that Starmer will overhaul his cabinet after the local elections
May 15 jumps to 35%12%
Labour MPs publicly demand the sacking of Ed Miliband ahead of a rumored reshuffle, intensifying speculation that Starmer will overhaul his cabinet after the local elections
Time article details how the Mandelson security‑vetting failure was revealed last week and how Starmer’s “staggering” ignorance of the issue fuels calls for his resignation,
April 30 dips to 2%4%
Time article details how the Mandelson security‑vetting failure was revealed last week and how Starmer’s “staggering” ignorance of the issue fuels calls for his resignation, sending the market sharply lower again
Time magazine analysis: “Why Starmer is facing growing calls to resign” – highlights cumulative scandals
June 30 drops to 42%13%
The high‑profile international piece renewed public scrutiny, but the market softened as the deadline approached without a concrete resignation announcement.
Starmer tells the Sunday Times the “vast majority” of Labour MPs still back him despite the Mandelson row – His public reassurance dampened speculation, pulling the
April 30 dips to 6%2%
Starmer tells the Sunday Times the “vast majority” of Labour MPs still back him despite the Mandelson row – His public reassurance dampened speculation, pulling the
BBC live coverage notes Tory leader Kemi Badenoch labeling Starmer’s position “untenable” and intensifying calls for him to quit
May 15 jumps to 35%13%
BBC live coverage notes Tory leader Kemi Badenoch labeling Starmer’s position “untenable” and intensifying calls for him to quit
Starmer blames foreign‑office officials for the Mandelson vetting lapse in a parliamentary statement, attempting to shift blame and calm the crisis
May 15 dips to 22%2%
Starmer blames foreign‑office officials for the Mandelson vetting lapse in a parliamentary statement, attempting to shift blame and calm the crisis
Starmer rebuffs resignation demands, saying he was “absolutely furious” that he was not warned about Peter Mandelson’s failed security vetting;
May 15 dips to 23%2%
opposition leaders call for his resignation
| Telegraph reveals new evidence that Starmer misled Parliament over Mandelson’s vetting, reigniting resignation pressure |
June 30 drops to 38%8%
| Telegraph reveals new evidence that Starmer misled Parliament over Mandelson’s vetting, reigniting resignation pressure |
Starmer’s inner team split over whether to launch a post‑election reshuffle, with chief of staff Vidhya Alakeson and cabinet secretary Darren Jones urging a pause while political
May 15 dips to 23%2%
Starmer’s inner team split over whether to launch a post‑election reshuffle, with chief of staff Vidhya Alakeson and cabinet secretary Darren Jones urging a pause while political director Amy Richards and chief whip Johnny Reynolds push for it
Ipsos poll shows 50 % of Britons think Starmer should resign, up from earlier weeks – The surge in public calls for his departure lifted “Yes” odds after the poll was released,
April 30 jumps to 8%7%
Ipsos poll shows 50 % of Britons think Starmer should resign, up from earlier weeks – The surge in public calls for his departure lifted “Yes” odds after the poll was released, reflecting heightened perceived risk of a resignation announcement.
Telegraph (via security‑blocked page) publishes a story on mounting pressure on Starmer over the Mandelson scandal, sparking a brief rally as traders reassess the likelihood of an
April 30 rises to 6%4%
Telegraph (via security‑blocked page) publishes a story on mounting pressure on Starmer over the Mandelson scandal, sparking a brief rally as traders reassess the likelihood of an immediate ouster
Starmer rejects resignation rumours amid Mandelson vetting row – Reuters reported the Prime Minister’s spokesperson saying Starmer had “no plans to resign” after new details about
April 30 dips to 7%2%
Starmer rejects resignation rumours amid Mandelson vetting row – Reuters reported the Prime Minister’s spokesperson saying Starmer had “no plans to resign” after new details about Peter Mandelson’s failed security vetting emerged, dampening speculation of an imminent exit.
BBC News notes that opposition leaders, including Kemi Badenoch, call Starmer’s position “untenable” over the Mandelson vetting, yet Starmer refuses to step down and no
BBC News notes that opposition leaders, including Kemi Badenoch, call Starmer’s position “untenable” over the Mandelson vetting, yet Starmer refuses to step down and no no‑confidence motion is tabled
Mandelson security‑vetting scandal erupts, prompting calls for Starmer’s resignation Reports revealed that Peter Mandelson had failed UK security vetting as early as January 2025,
April 30 drops to 2%10%
Mandelson security‑vetting scandal erupts, prompting calls for Starmer’s resignation Reports revealed that Peter Mandelson had failed UK security vetting as early as January 2025, contradicting Starmer’s earlier Commons statements and sparking intense pressure from opposition parties and Labour backbenchers
Starmer publicly declares he will “never walk away” after surviving a day of intense political pressure, which drives the
June 30 plunges to 38%18%
Starmer publicly declares he will “never walk away” after surviving a day of intense political pressure, which drives the
BBC notes Unite union leader predicts Starmer will resign or be forced out in May, heightening resignation expectations and driving the
April 30 dips to 5%4%
BBC notes Unite union leader predicts Starmer will resign or be forced out in May, heightening resignation expectations and driving the
Guardian reports that a new tranche of Mandelson WhatsApp messages is set to be released, prompting analysts to warn of further resignations and pushing the market down to
April 30 dips to 9%3%
Guardian reports that a new tranche of Mandelson WhatsApp messages is set to be released, prompting analysts to warn of further resignations and pushing the market down to single‑digit odds
Guardian reports that the next tranche of Peter Mandelson WhatsApp messages will be published, but sources say the files are unlikely to trigger further resignations
April 30 rises to 13%1%
Guardian reports that the next tranche of Peter Mandelson WhatsApp messages will be published, but sources say the files are unlikely to trigger further resignations
Kemi Badenoch claims rebel Labour MPs would back a no‑confidence vote on Starmer
May 15 drops to 22%8%
GB News quoted the opposition leader’s allegation that enough Labour rebels were willing to side with the Tories, further weakening market confidence.
| Starmer declares he is “not prepared to walk away” after the resignation of his chief adviser and mounting calls for his exit |
June 30 drops to 44%5%
| Starmer declares he is “not prepared to walk away” after the resignation of his chief adviser and mounting calls for his exit |
Financial Times reports former Downing Street chief Morgan McSweeney describes the Mandelson‑Epstein revelations as “a knife through my soul”, intensifying pressure on Starmer
June 30 rises to 48%4%
Financial Times reports former Downing Street chief Morgan McSweeney describes the Mandelson‑Epstein revelations as “a knife through my soul”, intensifying pressure on Starmer
Olly Robbins resigns as Foreign Office Permanent Secretary, citing the Mandelson controversy, causing a sharp rise in “Yes” odds
June 30 jumps to 56%11%
Olly Robbins resigns as Foreign Office Permanent Secretary, citing the Mandelson controversy, causing a sharp rise in “Yes” odds
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation
May 15 jumps to 35%10%
Western Morning News noted Sarwar’s press conference, the first senior Labour figure to demand Starmer step down, which sparked a short‑term rally as backbenchers rallied to defend the PM.
| BBC reports that senior civil servant Sir Chris Wormald is expected to resign, adding to the perception of a collapsing administration |
June 30 rises to 49%4%
| BBC reports that senior civil servant Sir Chris Wormald is expected to resign, adding to the perception of a collapsing administration |
Olly Robbins testifies that Starmer misled Parliament about Mandelson’s vetting, prompting renewed resignation demands
June 30 jumps to 55%13%
Olly Robbins testifies that Starmer misled Parliament about Mandelson’s vetting, prompting renewed resignation demands
Angela Rayner resigns from government after HMRC stamp‑duty probe (reported by The Independent)
May 15 rises to 24%2%
The loss of another senior minister added to the perception of a collapsing cabinet, prompting a brief
Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle, replacing the head of communications and promising a “managed process” for the Mandelson inquiry, pushing the market back up
June 30 surges to 50%22%
Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle, replacing the head of communications and promising a “managed process” for the Mandelson inquiry, pushing the market back up
Morgan McSweeney quits as Starmer’s Downing Street chief of staff amid the Mandelson scandal
May 15 drops to 25%13%
The resignation of Starmer’s right‑hand man was reported by The Independent, signalling a loss of senior support and prompting the first steep drop in the outcome’s
Starmer announces a major defence‑spending increase funded by cuts to foreign aid, drawing criticism and a sharp rise in “Yes” odds
June 30 surges to 44%21%
Starmer announces a major defence‑spending increase funded by cuts to foreign aid, drawing criticism and a sharp rise in “Yes” odds
Prime Minister announces strengthening of ministerial code, giving independent adviser more powers
June 30 surges to 55%16%
The move was seen as a pre‑emptive step to address misconduct allegations, raising expectations of a possible resignation.
| Peter Mandelson is dismissed as US ambassador after emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein are published | The removal of the scandal‑central figure revived doubts about
December 31 jumps to 66%8%
| Peter Mandelson is dismissed as US ambassador after emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein are published | The removal of the scandal‑central figure revived doubts about Starmer’s judgment, sending the
Conservative MP Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary motion demanding Starmer’s resignation, pushing the
June 30 surges to 45%23%
Conservative MP Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary motion demanding Starmer’s resignation, pushing the
| Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference demanding Starmer step down |
June 30 surges to 45%22%
| Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference demanding Starmer step down |
| Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference calling for Starmer to quit, citing “appalling vacuum of leadership” | While a regional leader’s call added noise,
December 31 dips to 58%4%
| Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference calling for Starmer to quit, citing “appalling vacuum of leadership” | While a regional leader’s call added noise, the market briefly retreated as the story lost momentum. |
Prime Minister Starmer survives a parliamentary no‑confidence vote after a last‑minute pledge of support from senior ministers, briefly lifting the
June 30 drops to 28%8%
Prime Minister Starmer survives a parliamentary no‑confidence vote after a last‑minute pledge of support from senior ministers, briefly lifting the
Petition to dissolve Parliament gathers 65,000 signatures, pressuring Starmer to call a snap election
May 15 drops to 30%5%
GB News reported the petition’s growth, heightening speculation of a no‑confidence move and pulling the
| Parliamentary Liaison Committee hearing reveals that Starmer misled MPs about Mandelson’s security clearance, with opposition demanding his resignation “by end of day” | Direct
December 31 rises to 62%3%
| Parliamentary Liaison Committee hearing reveals that Starmer misled MPs about Mandelson’s security clearance, with opposition demanding his resignation “by end of day” | Direct accusation of misleading Parliament intensified resignation pressure, lifting the
| BBC reports that Starmer’s approval rating has fallen to –46% in November, the lowest since his election, amid ongoing scandals | Deteriorating public support reinforced market
December 31 rises to 59%3%
| BBC reports that Starmer’s approval rating has fallen to –46% in November, the lowest since his election, amid ongoing scandals | Deteriorating public support reinforced market belief that Starmer’s tenure was untenable. |
Prime Minister Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle, replacing several ministers who had resigned over the scandal, which pulls the “Yes”
June 30 jumps to 39%7%
Prime Minister Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle, replacing several ministers who had resigned over the scandal, which pulls the “Yes”
Starmer survives a confidence vote in the Commons; opposition fails to secure majority
June 30 jumps to 39%6%
Surviving the vote reassured some traders, nudging the
Labour’s internal reshuffle after deputy Angela Rayner’s resignation;
June 30 jumps to 39%6%
Starmer sacks Peter Mandelson as ambassador, prompting a brief market rally
Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle, retaining key allies and calming the leadership crisis
June 30 plunges to 42%16%
Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle, retaining key allies and calming the leadership crisis
Cabinet minister Morgan McSweeney resigns, citing responsibility for the Mandelson appointment, further eroding confidence in Starmer’s leadership
June 30 plunges to 36%15%
Cabinet minister Morgan McSweeney resigns, citing responsibility for the Mandelson appointment, further eroding confidence in Starmer’s leadership
Starmer survives a parliamentary vote of confidence; opposition criticism eases
June 30 plunges to 58%15%
Starmer survives a parliamentary vote of confidence; opposition criticism eases
| Starmer survives a confidence vote after cabinet ministers publicly rally behind him |
June 30 plunges to 34%39%
| Starmer survives a confidence vote after cabinet ministers publicly rally behind him |
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, marking the first open Labour‑party demand and sending the
June 30 surges to 51%17%
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, marking the first open Labour‑party demand and sending the
| Prime Minister Starmer is accused of “blatantly lying” about Mandelson’s security clearance;
June 30 surges to 73%40%
opposition leaders demand his resignation |
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch tables no‑confidence motion against Starmer
June 30 plunges to 33%15%
The formal parliamentary challenge pushed the market down as the likelihood of an immediate resignation seemed lower.
Starmer’s net favourability hits historic lows in YouGov poll;
June 30 drops to 33%7%
opposition parties seize on the dip, raising speculation of a leadership challenge
BBC live feed shows Labour backbench revolt;
June 30 surges to 73%27%
multiple MPs publicly demand Starmer’s resignation
Lord Mandelson is dismissed as ambassador after emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein are published, temporarily easing pressure on Starmer
June 30 dips to 32%2%
Lord Mandelson is dismissed as ambassador after emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein are published, temporarily easing pressure on Starmer
Olly Robbins sacked as Foreign Office top official after Mandelson vetting row
June 30 jumps to 48%10%
The dismissal was interpreted as the government attempting to contain the scandal, briefly reviving “Yes” odds.
SNP leader Stephen Flynn labels the Mandelson evidence “devastating and definitive”, urging Starmer to resign before the day ends
June 30 drops to 34%12%
SNP leader Stephen Flynn labels the Mandelson evidence “devastating and definitive”, urging Starmer to resign before the day ends
Starmer survives a Commons vote to block a Privileges Committee inquiry into Peter Mandelson’s vetting, bolstering his position
June 30 dips to 40%3%
Starmer survives a Commons vote to block a Privileges Committee inquiry into Peter Mandelson’s vetting, bolstering his position
Starmer fires Mandelson after further Epstein‑link evidence surfaces, sparking calls for a no‑confidence vote
June 30 jumps to 46%8%
Starmer fires Mandelson after further Epstein‑link evidence surfaces, sparking calls for a no‑confidence vote
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch publicly declares Starmer’s premiership “untenable”, pushing the market to a short‑term high as opposition rallies
June 30 jumps to 46%6%
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch publicly declares Starmer’s premiership “untenable”, pushing the market to a short‑term high as opposition rallies
Guardian investigation reveals Mandelson failed security vetting;
June 30 dips to 38%2%
Starmer says he was “staggered” not to have been told
Telegraph reports Starmer is the least‑popular UK prime minister on record, sparking fresh calls for his resignation
June 30 jumps to 43%8%
Telegraph reports Starmer is the least‑popular UK prime minister on record, sparking fresh calls for his resignation
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” over the Mandelson vetting row
June 30 jumps to 40%5%
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” over the Mandelson vetting row
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly urges Starmer to set a resignation timetable
June 30 plunges to 38%35%
Even though the call came from a backbencher, the public nature of the demand signalled internal dissent, causing a sharp correction.
Ipsos poll finds 52 % of Britons say Starmer should stand down as PM
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Ipsos poll finds 52 % of Britons say Starmer should stand down as PM
| Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, appears before the Foreign Affairs Select Committee;
June 30 drops to 33%7%
his resignation is announced |
BBC reports MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, signalling growing internal dissent
June 30 rises to 35%2%
BBC reports MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, signalling growing internal dissent
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Mandelson despite security warnings, intensifying calls for a no‑confidence vote
June 30 dips to 40%3%
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Mandelson despite security warnings, intensifying calls for a no‑confidence vote
BBC reports that the opposition leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” and urges his resignation, driving the
June 30 plunges to 34%39%
BBC reports that the opposition leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” and urges his resignation, driving the
Prime Minister’s “unprecedented” resignation calls intensify after new evidence of Mandelson‑Epstein emails released
June 30 surges to 73%33%
The explosive email leak dramatically increased the perceived risk of Starmer being ousted, driving the
Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary debate calling Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson vetting story breaks, sparking a wave of resignations in No 10
June 30 jumps to 43%8%
Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary debate calling Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson vetting story breaks, sparking a wave of resignations in No 10
| Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, calling the government a “psychodrama” |
June 30 dips to 40%3%
| Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, calling the government a “psychodrama” |
Starmer claims “full due process” for Peter Mandelson’s US ambassadorship during PMQs, prompting opposition MPs to demand his resignation
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Starmer claims “full due process” for Peter Mandelson’s US ambassadorship during PMQs, prompting opposition MPs to demand his resignation
Starmer tells MPs at PMQs that “full due process” was followed for Mandelson’s appointment, a claim later contradicted by leaked documents, sparking a surge in “Yes” odds
June 30 surges to 73%40%
Starmer tells MPs at PMQs that “full due process” was followed for Mandelson’s appointment, a claim later contradicted by leaked documents, sparking a surge in “Yes” odds
Starmer asserts “full due process” during PMQs while opposition MPs demand his resignation over Mandelson scandal
June 30 dips to 40%3%
Starmer’s defence failed to quell criticism; the parliamentary showdown nudged the
Starmer tells MPs “full due process” was followed for Mandelson’s appointment, later contradicted by evidence
June 30 plunges to 33%15%
Starmer tells MPs “full due process” was followed for Mandelson’s appointment, later contradicted by evidence
| Olly Robbins, top Foreign Office official, resigns amid Mandelson vetting row |
June 30 jumps to 43%8%
| Olly Robbins, top Foreign Office official, resigns amid Mandelson vetting row |
| Starmer sacks Ambassador‑designate Peter Mandelson after emails reveal a close relationship with Jeffrey Epstein |
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
| Starmer sacks Ambassador‑designate Peter Mandelson after emails reveal a close relationship with Jeffrey Epstein |
Starmer survives another round of criticism, keeping “Yes” probability steady
December 31 drops to 66%5%
Starmer survives another round of criticism, keeping “Yes” probability steady
BBC reports that senior minister Anneliese Dodds resigns in protest over aid‑budget cuts, adding to the cumulative resignation tally
BBC reports that senior minister Anneliese Dodds resigns in protest over aid‑budget cuts, adding to the cumulative resignation tally
Starmer defies resignation calls, insisting he will not step down despite mounting pressure
December 31 rises to 71%3%
Starmer defies resignation calls, insisting he will not step down despite mounting pressure
BBC reports senior civil servant Sir Chris Wormald likely to quit after McSweeney’s resignation, adding to leadership turmoil
December 31 dips to 68%3%
BBC reports senior civil servant Sir Chris Wormald likely to quit after McSweeney’s resignation, adding to leadership turmoil
Labour’s internal poll shows 51 % of members now favour a leadership contest, reviving resignation speculation
December 31 jumps to 67%14%
Labour’s internal poll shows 51 % of members now favour a leadership contest, reviving resignation speculation
Prime Minister’s Questions: Starmer refuses to “walk away,” but admits “political turmoil,” temporarily stabilising the market
December 31 drops to 53%14%
Prime Minister’s Questions: Starmer refuses to “walk away,” but admits “political turmoil,” temporarily stabilising the market
Anas Sarwar reiterates his resignation demand at a press conference, pushing the
December 31 surges to 67%15%
Anas Sarwar reiterates his resignation demand at a press conference, pushing the
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, reviving speculation
December 31 surges to 71%22%
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, reviving speculation
Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle and retains backing from senior Labour figures, lifting the
December 31 jumps to 52%6%
Starmer announces a cabinet reshuffle and retains backing from senior Labour figures, lifting the
Former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over the Mandelson row, prompting a sharp drop
December 31 plunges to 46%19%
Former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over the Mandelson row, prompting a sharp drop
Kemi Badenoch (UK opposition leader) declares Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson fallout, pushing the
December 31 jumps to 67%14%
Kemi Badenoch (UK opposition leader) declares Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson fallout, pushing the
| Angela Rayner (Deputy Prime Minister) announces she will not stand for re‑election as deputy after a tax‑scandal inquiry, prompting a major cabinet reshuffle | Loss of the
December 31 rises to 73%4%
| Angela Rayner (Deputy Prime Minister) announces she will not stand for re‑election as deputy after a tax‑scandal inquiry, prompting a major cabinet reshuffle | Loss of the deputy heightened perception of a collapsing government, pushing the
BBC reports that senior Labour MPs (including Clive Lewis) publicly urge Starmer to step down, widening the leadership challenge narrative
December 31 jumps to 70%5%
BBC reports that senior Labour MPs (including Clive Lewis) publicly urge Starmer to step down, widening the leadership challenge narrative
Starmer survives a no‑confidence challenge;
December 31 jumps to 71%7%
cabinet publicly backs him, causing a short dip
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, prompting a brief market dip
December 31 drops to 65%6%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, prompting a brief market dip
Junior minister Josh Simons resigns despite being cleared, adding to the perception of a collapsing government
December 31 drops to 65%6%
Junior minister Josh Simons resigns despite being cleared, adding to the perception of a collapsing government
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Starmer to quit, sending the
December 31 jumps to 71%6%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Starmer to quit, sending the
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins alleges “constant pressure” from No 10 to approve Mandelson’s appointment
June 30 jumps to 43%8%
Robbins’ testimony suggested the Prime Minister’s office had overridden security advice, reviving doubts about Starmer’s judgment and pushing the market back up.
Former senior civil servant Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the Foreign Office to approve Mandelson, intensifying calls for a no‑confidence vote
June 30 rises to 48%3%
Former senior civil servant Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the Foreign Office to approve Mandelson, intensifying calls for a no‑confidence vote
| Labour MP Clive Lewis becomes the first MP to publicly call for Starmer’s resignation over the Mandelson affair | First MP‑level resignation call added credibility to the
December 31 dips to 69%2%
| Labour MP Clive Lewis becomes the first MP to publicly call for Starmer’s resignation over the Mandelson affair | First MP‑level resignation call added credibility to the crisis, sustaining high odds. |
Foreign Office civil servant Sir Olly Robbins sacked over the Mandelson vetting scandal, intensifying pressure on Starmer
December 31 drops to 61%7%
Foreign Office civil servant Sir Olly Robbins sacked over the Mandelson vetting scandal, intensifying pressure on Starmer
Starmer’s undisclosed visit to Palantir’s Washington office later reported, raising fresh ministerial‑code breach accusations
December 31 jumps to 68%12%
Starmer’s undisclosed visit to Palantir’s Washington office later reported, raising fresh ministerial‑code breach accusations
Starmer “furious” after learning Lord Peter Mandelson failed security vetting; Kemi Badenoch says his position “untenable”
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
The revelation that Mandelson’s appointment had been made despite a failed vetting check sparked immediate calls from the Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch for Starmer to resign, sending the “Yes” probability sharply lower.
Starmer appoints Peter Mandelson as U.S.
June 30 surges to 48%25%
ambassador despite pending security vetting
Starmer “absolutely furious” after learning Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before his U.S. ambassadorship appointment
December 31 jumps to 56%5%
Starmer “absolutely furious” after learning Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before his U.S. ambassadorship appointment
Mandelson is formally appointed U.S.
June 30 jumps to 45%10%
ambassador despite the earlier vetting denial, prompting immediate calls from opposition MPs for Starmer’s resignation
| Morgan McSweeney (Starmer’s chief of staff) resigns, citing responsibility for the Mandelson appointment | The departure of a senior adviser signalled internal turmoil, nudging
December 31 rises to 71%3%
| Morgan McSweeney (Starmer’s chief of staff) resigns, citing responsibility for the Mandelson appointment | The departure of a senior adviser signalled internal turmoil, nudging the
Starmer survives a confidence vote in Parliament, temporarily stabilising the
December 31 jumps to 67%6%
Starmer survives a confidence vote in Parliament, temporarily stabilising the
Reform UK’s Nigel Farage demands Starmer resign after evidence he misled Parliament on Mandelson’s clearance
December 31 drops to 64%7%
Reform UK’s Nigel Farage demands Starmer resign after evidence he misled Parliament on Mandelson’s clearance
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch publicly demands Starmer’s resignation, pushing the market lower
December 31 drops to 61%7%
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch publicly demands Starmer’s resignation, pushing the market lower
| Kemi Badenoch (Conservative leader) labels Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson scandal, calling for his immediate resignation | Opposition pressure reinforced
December 31 dips to 68%2%
| Kemi Badenoch (Conservative leader) labels Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson scandal, calling for his immediate resignation | Opposition pressure reinforced market expectations of a possible ouster, keeping the
Prime Minister’s furious response at a France summit, calling his own position “untenable” after the Mandelson revelations
December 31 drops to 68%9%
Prime Minister’s furious response at a France summit, calling his own position “untenable” after the Mandelson revelations
BBC reports that Sir Olly Robbins was sacked after exposing No 10 pressure to approve Mandelson
December 31 jumps to 71%9%
BBC reports that Sir Olly Robbins was sacked after exposing No 10 pressure to approve Mandelson
| Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly declares he was “staggered” to learn Mandelson failed vetting and vows to “walk away” from power if forced to resign | Starmer’s admission
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
| Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly declares he was “staggered” to learn Mandelson failed vetting and vows to “walk away” from power if forced to resign | Starmer’s admission of being blindsided amplified speculation of a leadership crisis, driving the
BBC reports Mandelson was appointed despite a “clearance denied” vetting recommendation, intensifying pressure on Starmer
December 31 surges to 77%15%
BBC reports Mandelson was appointed despite a “clearance denied” vetting recommendation, intensifying pressure on Starmer
Starmer publicly refuses to “walk away” after senior adviser Morgan McSweeney resigns amid Mandelson‑vetting row
December 31 jumps to 71%11%
Starmer publicly refuses to “walk away” after senior adviser Morgan McSweeney resigns amid Mandelson‑vetting row
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Starmer’s resignation, intensifying pressure
December 31 drops to 62%9%
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Starmer’s resignation, intensifying pressure
Starmer says he was “staggered” to learn Lord Peter Mandelson failed security vetting, sparking fresh calls for his resignation
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
Starmer says he was “staggered” to learn Lord Peter Mandelson failed security vetting, sparking fresh calls for his resignation
UK Security Vetting rejects Peter Mandelson’s clearance for the U.S.
June 30 jumps to 35%5%
ambassadorship, but the Foreign Office later over‑rules the decision
UK security vetting rejects Peter Mandelson for U.S.
December 31 surges to 60%16%
ambassadorship, but Starmer proceeds with appointment
| Olly Robbins (top Foreign Office civil servant) testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Peter Mandelson’s US‑ambassador appointment despite failed security
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
| Olly Robbins (top Foreign Office civil servant) testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Peter Mandelson’s US‑ambassador appointment despite failed security vetting | Revelation of direct No 10 interference raised doubts about Starmer’s control, lifting “Yes” odds. |
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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