Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and the central bank’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% remain the dominant forces anchoring 10-year Treasury yields near 4.45–4.50% in mid-June 2026. Recent PCE and CPI readings have shown limited disinflation progress, while strong labor-market data have reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts and even introduced modest probabilities of hikes by early 2027. Elevated term premiums, steady Treasury supply, and geopolitical pressures on energy prices further support higher long-term yields. Traders will monitor upcoming FOMC communications, June CPI and PCE releases, and employment reports for any signs that could reopen the path to lower policy rates and, in turn, compress the 10-year yield before the 2027 deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$216,394 Vol.
31 dic 2026
3,9%
39%
3,8%
39%
3,7%
35%
3,6%
31%
3,5%
23%
3,0%
15%
2,0%
8%
1,0%
4%
$216,394 Vol.
3,9%
$40,917 Vol.
39%
3,8%
$39,816 Vol.
39%
3,7%
$26,462 Vol.
35%
3,6%
$4,900 Vol.
31%
3,5%
$31,781 Vol.
23%
3,0%
$724 Vol.
15%
2,0%
$373 Vol.
8%
1,0%
$39,661 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and the central bank’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% remain the dominant forces anchoring 10-year Treasury yields near 4.45–4.50% in mid-June 2026. Recent PCE and CPI readings have shown limited disinflation progress, while strong labor-market data have reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts and even introduced modest probabilities of hikes by early 2027. Elevated term premiums, steady Treasury supply, and geopolitical pressures on energy prices further support higher long-term yields. Traders will monitor upcoming FOMC communications, June CPI and PCE releases, and employment reports for any signs that could reopen the path to lower policy rates and, in turn, compress the 10-year yield before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Volumen
$216,394Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and the central bank’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% remain the dominant forces anchoring 10-year Treasury yields near 4.45–4.50% in mid-June 2026. Recent PCE and CPI readings have shown limited disinflation progress, while strong labor-market data have reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts and even introduced modest probabilities of hikes by early 2027. Elevated term premiums, steady Treasury supply, and geopolitical pressures on energy prices further support higher long-term yields. Traders will monitor upcoming FOMC communications, June CPI and PCE releases, and employment reports for any signs that could reopen the path to lower policy rates and, in turn, compress the 10-year yield before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volumen
$216,394Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and the central bank’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% remain the dominant forces anchoring 10-year Treasury yields near 4.45–4.50% in mid-June 2026. Recent PCE and CPI readings have shown limited disinflation progress, while strong labor-market data have reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts and even introduced modest probabilities of hikes by early 2027. Elevated term premiums, steady Treasury supply, and geopolitical pressures on energy prices further support higher long-term yields. Traders will monitor upcoming FOMC communications, June CPI and PCE releases, and employment reports for any signs that could reopen the path to lower policy rates and, in turn, compress the 10-year yield before the 2027 deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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