Recent developments show the 10-year Treasury yield trading near 4.45-4.55% amid persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. The Federal Reserve's policy rate remains in the 3.50-3.75% range, with economists largely expecting no cuts through the end of 2026 due to geopolitical risks elevating energy prices and May inflation readings exceeding forecasts. Strong job gains have reinforced a higher-for-longer stance, limiting downside moves in longer-term yields despite occasional dips on easing oil concerns. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases will shape near-term rate expectations, while broader fiscal supply dynamics and growth resilience continue to anchor the yield curve above 4%. Trader sentiment reflects caution that yields may struggle to breach 4% decisively before 2027 without clearer disinflation progress.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$216,394 Vol.
31 dic 2026
3,9%
39%
3,8%
39%
3,7%
39%
3,6%
32%
3,5%
23%
3,0%
15%
2,0%
8%
1,0%
4%
$216,394 Vol.
3,9%
$40,917 Vol.
39%
3,8%
$39,816 Vol.
39%
3,7%
$26,462 Vol.
39%
3,6%
$4,900 Vol.
32%
3,5%
$31,781 Vol.
23%
3,0%
$724 Vol.
15%
2,0%
$373 Vol.
8%
1,0%
$39,661 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent developments show the 10-year Treasury yield trading near 4.45-4.55% amid persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. The Federal Reserve's policy rate remains in the 3.50-3.75% range, with economists largely expecting no cuts through the end of 2026 due to geopolitical risks elevating energy prices and May inflation readings exceeding forecasts. Strong job gains have reinforced a higher-for-longer stance, limiting downside moves in longer-term yields despite occasional dips on easing oil concerns. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases will shape near-term rate expectations, while broader fiscal supply dynamics and growth resilience continue to anchor the yield curve above 4%. Trader sentiment reflects caution that yields may struggle to breach 4% decisively before 2027 without clearer disinflation progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Volumen
$216,394Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent developments show the 10-year Treasury yield trading near 4.45-4.55% amid persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. The Federal Reserve's policy rate remains in the 3.50-3.75% range, with economists largely expecting no cuts through the end of 2026 due to geopolitical risks elevating energy prices and May inflation readings exceeding forecasts. Strong job gains have reinforced a higher-for-longer stance, limiting downside moves in longer-term yields despite occasional dips on easing oil concerns. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases will shape near-term rate expectations, while broader fiscal supply dynamics and growth resilience continue to anchor the yield curve above 4%. Trader sentiment reflects caution that yields may struggle to breach 4% decisively before 2027 without clearer disinflation progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volumen
$216,394Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments show the 10-year Treasury yield trading near 4.45-4.55% amid persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. The Federal Reserve's policy rate remains in the 3.50-3.75% range, with economists largely expecting no cuts through the end of 2026 due to geopolitical risks elevating energy prices and May inflation readings exceeding forecasts. Strong job gains have reinforced a higher-for-longer stance, limiting downside moves in longer-term yields despite occasional dips on easing oil concerns. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases will shape near-term rate expectations, while broader fiscal supply dynamics and growth resilience continue to anchor the yield curve above 4%. Trader sentiment reflects caution that yields may struggle to breach 4% decisively before 2027 without clearer disinflation progress.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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