The U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% in March 2026 per the latest BLS report, with nonfarm payrolls adding a robust 178,000 jobs amid erratic early-year trends following 2025's cooling. FOMC March projections peg the median at 4.4% by Q4 2026, consistent with Philadelphia Fed Survey forecasts of 4.5% and IMF estimates near 4%, reflecting trader consensus on modest labor market softening without recessionary spikes. Key drivers include fading fiscal supports and rising recession risks from analysts like Goldman Sachs, balanced by potential Fed rate cuts. Watch the April employment situation release on May 2 and May FOMC for catalysts on 2026 peak probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$371,364 Vol.
10 ene 2026
5,0%
46%
5.5%
24%
6.0%
32%
7.0%
9%
10,0%
3%
$371,364 Vol.
5,0%
$94,838 Vol.
46%
5.5%
$183,697 Vol.
24%
6.0%
$50,712 Vol.
32%
7.0%
$18,502 Vol.
9%
10,0%
$23,615 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% in March 2026 per the latest BLS report, with nonfarm payrolls adding a robust 178,000 jobs amid erratic early-year trends following 2025's cooling. FOMC March projections peg the median at 4.4% by Q4 2026, consistent with Philadelphia Fed Survey forecasts of 4.5% and IMF estimates near 4%, reflecting trader consensus on modest labor market softening without recessionary spikes. Key drivers include fading fiscal supports and rising recession risks from analysts like Goldman Sachs, balanced by potential Fed rate cuts. Watch the April employment situation release on May 2 and May FOMC for catalysts on 2026 peak probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volumen
$371,364Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% in March 2026 per the latest BLS report, with nonfarm payrolls adding a robust 178,000 jobs amid erratic early-year trends following 2025's cooling. FOMC March projections peg the median at 4.4% by Q4 2026, consistent with Philadelphia Fed Survey forecasts of 4.5% and IMF estimates near 4%, reflecting trader consensus on modest labor market softening without recessionary spikes. Key drivers include fading fiscal supports and rising recession risks from analysts like Goldman Sachs, balanced by potential Fed rate cuts. Watch the April employment situation release on May 2 and May FOMC for catalysts on 2026 peak probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$371,364Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% in March 2026 per the latest BLS report, with nonfarm payrolls adding a robust 178,000 jobs amid erratic early-year trends following 2025's cooling. FOMC March projections peg the median at 4.4% by Q4 2026, consistent with Philadelphia Fed Survey forecasts of 4.5% and IMF estimates near 4%, reflecting trader consensus on modest labor market softening without recessionary spikes. Key drivers include fading fiscal supports and rising recession risks from analysts like Goldman Sachs, balanced by potential Fed rate cuts. Watch the April employment situation release on May 2 and May FOMC for catalysts on 2026 peak probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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