Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 94.5% implied probability for a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease at its May 7 meeting, driven by easing inflation that bolsters the easing cycle resumed with a surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% on March 26 despite prior pressures. Headline inflation cooled to 4.53% year-over-year in early April 2026 from March's 4.63% peak, aligning with Banxico's 3% target convergence path amid weak growth signals, while Governor Rodríguez Ceja signaled May as a potential venue for 2026's final cut. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects trader confidence in sustained disinflation; realistic challenges include hotter full April CPI data due soon after or peso depreciation from U.S. policy shifts, potentially justifying a no-change stance.