Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.5% implied probability to a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease at its May 7 meeting, driven by the central bank's dovish March 26 surprise 25-basis-point cut to 6.75% despite Q1 2026 headline inflation at 4.1% above the 3% target. Supporting this positioning, early April inflation eased to 4.53% year-on-year, while Q1 GDP contracted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and March unemployment ticked up to 2.4%, signaling weakening activity that bolsters easing expectations amid resilient disinflation trends. Realistic challenges include a rebound in full April CPI data or external shocks like U.S. policy shifts, though current pricing reflects strong skin-in-the-game alignment on resuming the monetary policy accommodation cycle.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoDecisión del Banco de México en mayo
Decisión del Banco de México en mayo
Disminución 95%
Sin cambios 4.8%
Aumento <1%
$189,937 Vol.
$189,937 Vol.
7 may 2026
Disminución
95%
Sin cambios
5%
Aumento
<1%
Disminución 95%
Sin cambios 4.8%
Aumento <1%
$189,937 Vol.
$189,937 Vol.
7 may 2026
Disminución
$63,544 Vol.
95%
Sin cambios
$68,832 Vol.
5%
Aumento
$57,561 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.5% implied probability to a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease at its May 7 meeting, driven by the central bank's dovish March 26 surprise 25-basis-point cut to 6.75% despite Q1 2026 headline inflation at 4.1% above the 3% target. Supporting this positioning, early April inflation eased to 4.53% year-on-year, while Q1 GDP contracted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and March unemployment ticked up to 2.4%, signaling weakening activity that bolsters easing expectations amid resilient disinflation trends. Realistic challenges include a rebound in full April CPI data or external shocks like U.S. policy shifts, though current pricing reflects strong skin-in-the-game alignment on resuming the monetary policy accommodation cycle.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
Volumen
$189,937Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.5% implied probability to a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease at its May 7 meeting, driven by the central bank's dovish March 26 surprise 25-basis-point cut to 6.75% despite Q1 2026 headline inflation at 4.1% above the 3% target. Supporting this positioning, early April inflation eased to 4.53% year-on-year, while Q1 GDP contracted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and March unemployment ticked up to 2.4%, signaling weakening activity that bolsters easing expectations amid resilient disinflation trends. Realistic challenges include a rebound in full April CPI data or external shocks like U.S. policy shifts, though current pricing reflects strong skin-in-the-game alignment on resuming the monetary policy accommodation cycle.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$189,937Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.5% implied probability to a Bank of Mexico (Banxico) rate decrease at its May 7 meeting, driven by the central bank's dovish March 26 surprise 25-basis-point cut to 6.75% despite Q1 2026 headline inflation at 4.1% above the 3% target. Supporting this positioning, early April inflation eased to 4.53% year-on-year, while Q1 GDP contracted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and March unemployment ticked up to 2.4%, signaling weakening activity that bolsters easing expectations amid resilient disinflation trends. Realistic challenges include a rebound in full April CPI data or external shocks like U.S. policy shifts, though current pricing reflects strong skin-in-the-game alignment on resuming the monetary policy accommodation cycle.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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