Recent inflation readings above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, combined with steady wage gains and resilient domestic demand, have anchored trader consensus around a 25 basis point policy rate hike in June, reflected in the 99.3% market-implied probability. This pricing aligns with the central bank's forward guidance and contrasts with the minimal odds assigned to no change or larger moves. A softer-than-expected CPI print, weaker labor data, or dovish comments from Governor Ueda ahead of the decision could still shift probabilities, though such outcomes appear low-probability given the current data trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAumento de 25 puntos básicos 99.3%
Sin cambios <1%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Reducir tasas <1%
$581,751 Vol.
$581,751 Vol.
16 jun 2026
Reducir tasas
<1%
Sin cambios
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
99%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 99.3%
Sin cambios <1%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Reducir tasas <1%
$581,751 Vol.
$581,751 Vol.
16 jun 2026
Reducir tasas
$92,333 Vol.
<1%
Sin cambios
$144,563 Vol.
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$144,350 Vol.
99%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$200,505 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation readings above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, combined with steady wage gains and resilient domestic demand, have anchored trader consensus around a 25 basis point policy rate hike in June, reflected in the 99.3% market-implied probability. This pricing aligns with the central bank's forward guidance and contrasts with the minimal odds assigned to no change or larger moves. A softer-than-expected CPI print, weaker labor data, or dovish comments from Governor Ueda ahead of the decision could still shift probabilities, though such outcomes appear low-probability given the current data trajectory.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volumen
$581,751Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation readings above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, combined with steady wage gains and resilient domestic demand, have anchored trader consensus around a 25 basis point policy rate hike in June, reflected in the 99.3% market-implied probability. This pricing aligns with the central bank's forward guidance and contrasts with the minimal odds assigned to no change or larger moves. A softer-than-expected CPI print, weaker labor data, or dovish comments from Governor Ueda ahead of the decision could still shift probabilities, though such outcomes appear low-probability given the current data trajectory.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$581,751Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, combined with steady wage gains and resilient domestic demand, have anchored trader consensus around a 25 basis point policy rate hike in June, reflected in the 99.3% market-implied probability. This pricing aligns with the central bank's forward guidance and contrasts with the minimal odds assigned to no change or larger moves. A softer-than-expected CPI print, weaker labor data, or dovish comments from Governor Ueda ahead of the decision could still shift probabilities, though such outcomes appear low-probability given the current data trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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