Polymarket traders have priced a razor-thin 51.6% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 meeting, barely ahead of no change at 49.5%, reflecting hawkish signals from the April 28 decision amid sharply upgraded core CPI forecasts to 2.8% for fiscal 2026—driven by Iran war-fueled oil prices—offset by a growth downgrade to 0.5%. A 6-3 board split with three dissenters favoring an immediate hike underscores internal pressure for normalization, yet Governor Ueda emphasized caution on uncertainties, keeping the contest tight. Key swing factors include May Tokyo CPI (April at 1.5% YoY), wage trends, and yen volatility, with negligible odds on larger moves or cuts signaling consensus around gradualism.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAumento de 25 puntos básicos 51.6%
Sin cambios 50%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Reducir tasas <1%
$73,431 Vol.
$73,431 Vol.
16 jun 2026
Reducir tasas
<1%
Sin cambios
50%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
52%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 51.6%
Sin cambios 50%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Reducir tasas <1%
$73,431 Vol.
$73,431 Vol.
16 jun 2026
Reducir tasas
$26,202 Vol.
<1%
Sin cambios
$20,289 Vol.
50%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$14,649 Vol.
52%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$12,291 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders have priced a razor-thin 51.6% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 meeting, barely ahead of no change at 49.5%, reflecting hawkish signals from the April 28 decision amid sharply upgraded core CPI forecasts to 2.8% for fiscal 2026—driven by Iran war-fueled oil prices—offset by a growth downgrade to 0.5%. A 6-3 board split with three dissenters favoring an immediate hike underscores internal pressure for normalization, yet Governor Ueda emphasized caution on uncertainties, keeping the contest tight. Key swing factors include May Tokyo CPI (April at 1.5% YoY), wage trends, and yen volatility, with negligible odds on larger moves or cuts signaling consensus around gradualism.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volumen
$73,431Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders have priced a razor-thin 51.6% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 meeting, barely ahead of no change at 49.5%, reflecting hawkish signals from the April 28 decision amid sharply upgraded core CPI forecasts to 2.8% for fiscal 2026—driven by Iran war-fueled oil prices—offset by a growth downgrade to 0.5%. A 6-3 board split with three dissenters favoring an immediate hike underscores internal pressure for normalization, yet Governor Ueda emphasized caution on uncertainties, keeping the contest tight. Key swing factors include May Tokyo CPI (April at 1.5% YoY), wage trends, and yen volatility, with negligible odds on larger moves or cuts signaling consensus around gradualism.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$73,431Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders have priced a razor-thin 51.6% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 meeting, barely ahead of no change at 49.5%, reflecting hawkish signals from the April 28 decision amid sharply upgraded core CPI forecasts to 2.8% for fiscal 2026—driven by Iran war-fueled oil prices—offset by a growth downgrade to 0.5%. A 6-3 board split with three dissenters favoring an immediate hike underscores internal pressure for normalization, yet Governor Ueda emphasized caution on uncertainties, keeping the contest tight. Key swing factors include May Tokyo CPI (April at 1.5% YoY), wage trends, and yen volatility, with negligible odds on larger moves or cuts signaling consensus around gradualism.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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