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Sports·MLB

MLB: Home Runs Leader

icon for MLB: Home Runs Leader
Sports·MLB

MLB: Home Runs Leader

Aaron Judge 38%

Munetaka Murakami 20%

Kyle Schwarber 10%

Shohei Ohtani 8%

Polymarket
NEW

Aaron Judge 38%

Munetaka Murakami 20%

Kyle Schwarber 10%

Shohei Ohtani 8%

Polymarket
NEW

Aaron Judge

$26 Vol.

38%

Munetaka Murakami

$26 Vol.

20%

Kyle Schwarber

$10 Vol.

10%

Shohei Ohtani

$31 Vol.

8%

Cal Raleigh

$10 Vol.

6%

Junior Caminero

$10 Vol.

5%

Elly De La Cruz

$10 Vol.

4%

Nick Kurtz

$10 Vol.

3%

Matt Olson

$10 Vol.

3%

George Springer

$32 Vol.

3%

James Wood

$10 Vol.

3%

Brandon Lowe

$10 Vol.

2%

Manny Machado

$10 Vol.

2%

Ben Rice

$10 Vol.

2%

CJ Abrams

$10 Vol.

2%

Shea Langeliers

$10 Vol.

2%

Rafael Devers

$10 Vol.

2%

Giancarlo Stanton

$10 Vol.

2%

Pete Alonso

$10 Vol.

2%

Yordan Alvarez

$10 Vol.

15%

Eugenio Suarez

$10 Vol.

2%

Mike Trout

$10 Vol.

2%

Juan Soto

$10 Vol.

2%

Jordan Walker

$10 Vol.

2%

Sal Stewart

$10 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Aaron Judge leads trader consensus at 38% implied probability for MLB home runs leader, tied with Munetaka Murakami at 12 homers through roughly 30 games, but Judge's proven track record as a perennial AL slugging champion and Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch give him the edge in projections. Murakami's explosive start with the White Sox, including a MLB-leading 12th homer on April 28—a go-ahead three-run shot—and homers in five straight games, has propelled him to 20%, highlighting his raw power transition from NPB. Kyle Schwarber's nine homers pace the Phillies' leadoff surge amid a hot April, supporting his 9.5% share, while Shohei Ohtani's slower early pace tempers his 7.5% odds despite two-way star power. Early-season volatility, health, and schedule strength will shape the race.

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$325
End Date
Sep 28, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Aaron Judge leads trader consensus at 38% implied probability for MLB home runs leader, tied with Munetaka Murakami at 12 homers through roughly 30 games, but Judge's proven track record as a perennial AL slugging champion and Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch give him the edge in projections. Murakami's explosive start with the White Sox, including a MLB-leading 12th homer on April 28—a go-ahead three-run shot—and homers in five straight games, has propelled him to 20%, highlighting his raw power transition from NPB. Kyle Schwarber's nine homers pace the Phillies' leadoff surge amid a hot April, supporting his 9.5% share, while Shohei Ohtani's slower early pace tempers his 7.5% odds despite two-way star power. Early-season volatility, health, and schedule strength will shape the race.

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$325
End Date
Sep 28, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: Home Runs Leader" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aaron Judge" at 38%, followed by "Munetaka Murakami" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MLB: Home Runs Leader" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MLB: Home Runs Leader," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: Home Runs Leader" is "Aaron Judge" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Munetaka Murakami" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: Home Runs Leader" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.