Historical data shows that penalty kicks awarded during FIFA World Cup matches in regulation and extra time have converted at a 79.1% rate since 1978. This long-term success stems from the controlled nature of the spot kick, where elite takers face a stationary goalkeeper with a large target area and established routines that minimize pressure-induced errors. The first penalty of the 2026 tournament is expected to follow these established patterns rather than shootout dynamics, where conversion drops notably after the initial attempts. Trader pricing at 79% for a made outcome reflects this consistent empirical record across multiple editions, with limited variance from recent form or specific matchups at the tournament's outset.