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icon for ¿Qué IA de la empresa llegará por primera vez a 1550 en Chatbot Arena en 2026?

¿Qué IA de la empresa llegará por primera vez a 1550 en Chatbot Arena en 2026?

icon for ¿Qué IA de la empresa llegará por primera vez a 1550 en Chatbot Arena en 2026?

¿Qué IA de la empresa llegará por primera vez a 1550 en Chatbot Arena en 2026?

Ninguno en 2026 58%

Anthropic 32%

Google 7%

OpenAI 7%

Polymarket

$41,759 Vol.

Ninguno en 2026 58%

Anthropic 32%

Google 7%

OpenAI 7%

Polymarket

$41,759 Vol.

icon for Ninguno en 2026

Ninguno en 2026

$6,848 Vol.

58%

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$5,834 Vol.

32%

icon for Google

Google

$5,959 Vol.

7%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$6,305 Vol.

7%

icon for xAI

xAI

$4,606 Vol.

2%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$3,324 Vol.

1%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$2,792 Vol.

1%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$3,132 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$2,959 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 58% implied probability to no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the current peak of around 1505 held by Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7, which rocketed to the top following its April 16 release amid a tightening race with xAI (1495 Elo), Google (1494), and OpenAI (1481) per Stanford's recent 2026 AI Index. Anthropic commands 32% as the frontrunner, bolstered by consistent leaderboard dominance and rapid iteration on Claude models, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 underperformed in direct comparisons. Converging capabilities across labs signal slowing gains toward the threshold, though unannounced frontier releases could catalyze shifts before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".

If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volumen
$41,759
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 58% implied probability to no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the current peak of around 1505 held by Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7, which rocketed to the top following its April 16 release amid a tightening race with xAI (1495 Elo), Google (1494), and OpenAI (1481) per Stanford's recent 2026 AI Index. Anthropic commands 32% as the frontrunner, bolstered by consistent leaderboard dominance and rapid iteration on Claude models, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 underperformed in direct comparisons. Converging capabilities across labs signal slowing gains toward the threshold, though unannounced frontier releases could catalyze shifts before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".

If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volumen
$41,759
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué IA de la empresa llegará por primera vez a 1550 en Chatbot Arena en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Ninguno en 2026" con 58%, seguido de "Anthropic" con 32%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 58¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 58% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Qué IA de la empresa llegará por primera vez a 1550 en Chatbot Arena en 2026?" ha generado $41.8K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 13, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Qué IA de la empresa llegará por primera vez a 1550 en Chatbot Arena en 2026?", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Qué IA de la empresa llegará por primera vez a 1550 en Chatbot Arena en 2026?" es "Ninguno en 2026" con 58%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 58% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Anthropic" con 32%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué IA de la empresa llegará por primera vez a 1550 en Chatbot Arena en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.