Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 58% implied probability to no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the current peak of around 1505 held by Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7, which rocketed to the top following its April 16 release amid a tightening race with xAI (1495 Elo), Google (1494), and OpenAI (1481) per Stanford's recent 2026 AI Index. Anthropic commands 32% as the frontrunner, bolstered by consistent leaderboard dominance and rapid iteration on Claude models, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 underperformed in direct comparisons. Converging capabilities across labs signal slowing gains toward the threshold, though unannounced frontier releases could catalyze shifts before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNinguno en 2026 58%
Anthropic 32%
Google 7%
OpenAI 7%
$41,759 Vol.
$41,759 Vol.

Ninguno en 2026
58%

Anthropic
32%

7%

OpenAI
7%

xAI
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Alibaba
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Ninguno en 2026 58%
Anthropic 32%
Google 7%
OpenAI 7%
$41,759 Vol.
$41,759 Vol.

Ninguno en 2026
58%

Anthropic
32%

7%

OpenAI
7%

xAI
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Alibaba
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 58% implied probability to no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the current peak of around 1505 held by Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7, which rocketed to the top following its April 16 release amid a tightening race with xAI (1495 Elo), Google (1494), and OpenAI (1481) per Stanford's recent 2026 AI Index. Anthropic commands 32% as the frontrunner, bolstered by consistent leaderboard dominance and rapid iteration on Claude models, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 underperformed in direct comparisons. Converging capabilities across labs signal slowing gains toward the threshold, though unannounced frontier releases could catalyze shifts before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes