The 10-year Treasury yield has surged above 4.40% in late April 2026, peaking near 4.43% after the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where a divided 8-4 vote held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures from March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and rising oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. This hawkish pause—marking the third consecutive hold and first dissents since 2022—reversed earlier monthly lows around 4.25%, reflecting trader consensus on reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. With April's final daily Treasury par yield curve rate publishing today, markets price high probabilities for upward thresholds like 4.40% and 4.45%, barring a sharp intraday reversal before close. Next catalysts include May 12 CPI data and June FOMC.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$15,768 Vol.
30 abr 2026
↑4.60%
<1%
↑4.50%
5%
↑4.45%
50%
↑4.40%
100%
↓4.25%
3%
↓4.20%
51%
↓4.15%
2%
↓4.10%
1%
↓4.00%
<1%
$15,768 Vol.
↑4.60%
$2,432 Vol.
<1%
↑4.50%
$776 Vol.
5%
↑4.45%
$3,880 Vol.
50%
↑4.40%
$4,497 Vol.
100%
↓4.25%
$291 Vol.
3%
↓4.20%
$0 Vol.
51%
↓4.15%
$1,012 Vol.
2%
↓4.10%
$261 Vol.
1%
↓4.00%
$2,106 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value for any day in April 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value, or once the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate has been published for the final relevant day in April, and the listed value has not been reached.
Revisions made prior to the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant day in April will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from counting. Revisions or corrections made after the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant date in April will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" at https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202604.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or below the listed value for any day in April 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or below the listed value, or once the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate has been published for the final relevant day in April, and the listed value has not been reached.
Revisions made prior to the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant day in April will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from counting. Revisions or corrections made after the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant date in April will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" at https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202604.The 10-year Treasury yield has surged above 4.40% in late April 2026, peaking near 4.43% after the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where a divided 8-4 vote held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures from March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and rising oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. This hawkish pause—marking the third consecutive hold and first dissents since 2022—reversed earlier monthly lows around 4.25%, reflecting trader consensus on reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. With April's final daily Treasury par yield curve rate publishing today, markets price high probabilities for upward thresholds like 4.40% and 4.45%, barring a sharp intraday reversal before close. Next catalysts include May 12 CPI data and June FOMC.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value for any day in April 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value, or once the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate has been published for the final relevant day in April, and the listed value has not been reached.
Revisions made prior to the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant day in April will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from counting. Revisions or corrections made after the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant date in April will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" at https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202604.
This market will resolve as soon as the Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value, or once the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate has been published for the final relevant day in April, and the listed value has not been reached.
Revisions made prior to the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant day in April will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from counting. Revisions or corrections made after the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant date in April will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" at https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202604.
Mercado abierto: Apr 2, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Volumen
$15,768Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value for any day in April 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value, or once the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate has been published for the final relevant day in April, and the listed value has not been reached.
Revisions made prior to the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant day in April will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from counting. Revisions or corrections made after the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant date in April will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" at https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202604.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or below the listed value for any day in April 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or below the listed value, or once the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate has been published for the final relevant day in April, and the listed value has not been reached.
Revisions made prior to the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant day in April will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from counting. Revisions or corrections made after the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant date in April will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" at https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202604.The 10-year Treasury yield has surged above 4.40% in late April 2026, peaking near 4.43% after the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where a divided 8-4 vote held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures from March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and rising oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. This hawkish pause—marking the third consecutive hold and first dissents since 2022—reversed earlier monthly lows around 4.25%, reflecting trader consensus on reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. With April's final daily Treasury par yield curve rate publishing today, markets price high probabilities for upward thresholds like 4.40% and 4.45%, barring a sharp intraday reversal before close. Next catalysts include May 12 CPI data and June FOMC.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value for any day in April 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value, or once the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate has been published for the final relevant day in April, and the listed value has not been reached.
Revisions made prior to the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant day in April will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from counting. Revisions or corrections made after the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant date in April will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" at https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202604.
This market will resolve as soon as the Department of the Treasury publishes a Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury equal to or above the listed value, or once the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate has been published for the final relevant day in April, and the listed value has not been reached.
Revisions made prior to the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant day in April will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from counting. Revisions or corrections made after the publication of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the final relevant date in April will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" at https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=202604.
Volumen
$15,768Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield has surged above 4.40% in late April 2026, peaking near 4.43% after the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where a divided 8-4 vote held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures from March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and rising oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. This hawkish pause—marking the third consecutive hold and first dissents since 2022—reversed earlier monthly lows around 4.25%, reflecting trader consensus on reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. With April's final daily Treasury par yield curve rate publishing today, markets price high probabilities for upward thresholds like 4.40% and 4.45%, barring a sharp intraday reversal before close. Next catalysts include May 12 CPI data and June FOMC.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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