Crystal Palace leads trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability to win the UEFA Europa Conference League after their dominant 3-1 away victory over Shakhtar Donetsk in the semi-final first leg on April 30, with Ismaïla Sarr scoring the fastest goal in competition history (1st minute), followed by Daichi Kamada and Jørgen Strand Larsen, positioning them strongly for the Selhurst Park second leg on May 7. Rayo Vallecano's narrow 1-0 home win against Strasbourg via Alemão's header gives them a slight aggregate edge ahead of the return in France, explaining their 20.5% share versus Strasbourg's 18.2%, while Shakhtar's deficit drops them to 2.2%. All four advanced comfortably from quarter-finals with 3-0 first-leg triumphs, highlighting momentum in the knockout phase.