**Traders price “No” at 85.5% because Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP bloc holds roughly 321 of 600 parliamentary seats—well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a referendum or the 400 votes for direct amendment—while opposition and Kurdish parties remain unwilling to supply the necessary support.** President Erdoğan’s May 2025 appointment of a ten-member legal commission to draft a “civilian” charter produced initial statements and workshops but has not advanced to formal legislative debate or an official referendum announcement. Scheduled presidential and parliamentary elections in 2028 create little immediate incentive for rushed constitutional action, and public surveys show majority resistance to reforms perceived as extending the incumbent’s tenure. Ongoing discussions of snap elections or term-limit adjustments remain speculative and have not altered the parliamentary arithmetic or cross-party dynamics. These structural and consensus barriers sustain the market’s expectation that no referendum will be formally announced before the end of 2026.