Trader consensus favors "No" at 65% implied probability for a constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, driven by the absence of concrete legislative action in the first four months despite earlier signals. In February 2026, the ruling AK Party outlined a roadmap for constitutional reform to replace the 1982 military-era document with a civilian one, amid discussions tying changes to Kurdish peace efforts and President Erdoğan's term limits under the current charter. However, late April declarations designated 2026 as the "year of reforms," prioritizing economic measures like tax incentives for exporters and industrial upgrades over constitutional moves. Without 360 parliamentary votes to trigger a referendum—requiring opposition support beyond AK Party and allies—momentum has stalled, though unscheduled sessions could shift dynamics.