Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for S&P 500 year-end 2026 levels, with <$6,000 (31.5% implied probability) edging $6,000-$6,500 (29.0%), reflecting heightened uncertainty amid current index trading near 7,150. Recent escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions has driven oil above $100/barrel, fueling inflation fears and prompting the Fed's April 28-29 FOMC to hold rates steady despite dissent for cuts, as March CPI rose 0.2% excluding food/energy and unemployment ticked to 4.3%. Strong Q1 earnings growth of ~13% YoY, tech-led, offers counterbalance, but sticky inflation and recession odds (~25% on related markets) cap upside expectations versus Wall Street's ~7,200 average target. Key differentiators include June FOMC projections, Q2 earnings, and Middle East de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
<$6,000 32%
$6,500-$7,000 21%
$7,000-$7,500 20%
$6,000-$6,500 18%
$22,302 Vol.
$22,302 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
32%
$6,000-$6,500
18%
$6,500-$7,000
21%
$7,000-$7,500
20%
$7,500-$8,000
11%
>$8,000
11%
<$6,000 32%
$6,500-$7,000 21%
$7,000-$7,500 20%
$6,000-$6,500 18%
$22,302 Vol.
$22,302 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
$13,546 Vol.
32%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,409 Vol.
18%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,284 Vol.
21%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,069 Vol.
20%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,818 Vol.
11%
>$8,000
$2,176 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for S&P 500 year-end 2026 levels, with <$6,000 (31.5% implied probability) edging $6,000-$6,500 (29.0%), reflecting heightened uncertainty amid current index trading near 7,150. Recent escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions has driven oil above $100/barrel, fueling inflation fears and prompting the Fed's April 28-29 FOMC to hold rates steady despite dissent for cuts, as March CPI rose 0.2% excluding food/energy and unemployment ticked to 4.3%. Strong Q1 earnings growth of ~13% YoY, tech-led, offers counterbalance, but sticky inflation and recession odds (~25% on related markets) cap upside expectations versus Wall Street's ~7,200 average target. Key differentiators include June FOMC projections, Q2 earnings, and Middle East de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volumen
$22,302Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for S&P 500 year-end 2026 levels, with <$6,000 (31.5% implied probability) edging $6,000-$6,500 (29.0%), reflecting heightened uncertainty amid current index trading near 7,150. Recent escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions has driven oil above $100/barrel, fueling inflation fears and prompting the Fed's April 28-29 FOMC to hold rates steady despite dissent for cuts, as March CPI rose 0.2% excluding food/energy and unemployment ticked to 4.3%. Strong Q1 earnings growth of ~13% YoY, tech-led, offers counterbalance, but sticky inflation and recession odds (~25% on related markets) cap upside expectations versus Wall Street's ~7,200 average target. Key differentiators include June FOMC projections, Q2 earnings, and Middle East de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$22,302Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight contest for S&P 500 year-end 2026 levels, with <$6,000 (31.5% implied probability) edging $6,000-$6,500 (29.0%), reflecting heightened uncertainty amid current index trading near 7,150. Recent escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions has driven oil above $100/barrel, fueling inflation fears and prompting the Fed's April 28-29 FOMC to hold rates steady despite dissent for cuts, as March CPI rose 0.2% excluding food/energy and unemployment ticked to 4.3%. Strong Q1 earnings growth of ~13% YoY, tech-led, offers counterbalance, but sticky inflation and recession odds (~25% on related markets) cap upside expectations versus Wall Street's ~7,200 average target. Key differentiators include June FOMC projections, Q2 earnings, and Middle East de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes