Pierre Poilievre retained Conservative Party leadership after the 2025 election loss through a mandatory review at the January 2026 Calgary convention, securing 87.4% delegate support—well above the 50% threshold that would have triggered a new contest under party rules. This outcome reflected solid grassroots and caucus backing despite the defeat to Mark Carney’s Liberals and subsequent floor crossings by a handful of MPs. As of mid-2026, no organized leadership challenge, credible alternative candidate, or constitutional trigger has emerged, while recent member surveys show continued majority approval within the party base. These factors underpin trader consensus that Poilievre will remain leader through the December 2026 resolution window, with any potential shift hinging on major polling erosion or internal revolt ahead of the next election cycle.