Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects steady TSA checkpoint throughput averaging 2.4 million passengers daily in early May 2026, pushing implied probabilities for 16.5-18 million total screenings into a tight race around 25-28% each, with <16.5 million a distant 4.5%. Recent data through May 7 tallied nearly 17 million for the prior week amid record spring travel recovery and TSA's addition of 1,000 officers to handle surging volumes, yet slight airline capacity cuts (down 0.3% for May post-Spirit adjustments) temper upside potential. Key swing factors include post-Mother's Day lulls early in the week versus weekend peaks and summer ramp-up momentum, with daily TSA reports through May 17 offering critical updates to break the deadlock.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado17.5-18m 51%
16.5-17m 30%
18-18.5m 28%
<16.5m 4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 may 2026
<16.5m
4%
16.5-17m
30%
17-17.5m
48%
17.5-18m
51%
18-18.5m
28%
>18.5m
1%
17.5-18m 51%
16.5-17m 30%
18-18.5m 28%
<16.5m 4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 may 2026
<16.5m
$53 Vol.
4%
16.5-17m
$0 Vol.
30%
17-17.5m
$58 Vol.
48%
17.5-18m
$2 Vol.
51%
18-18.5m
$3 Vol.
28%
>18.5m
$452 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between May 11, 2026 and May 17, 2026 (inclusive).
The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for any of the dates from May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026 by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects steady TSA checkpoint throughput averaging 2.4 million passengers daily in early May 2026, pushing implied probabilities for 16.5-18 million total screenings into a tight race around 25-28% each, with <16.5 million a distant 4.5%. Recent data through May 7 tallied nearly 17 million for the prior week amid record spring travel recovery and TSA's addition of 1,000 officers to handle surging volumes, yet slight airline capacity cuts (down 0.3% for May post-Spirit adjustments) temper upside potential. Key swing factors include post-Mother's Day lulls early in the week versus weekend peaks and summer ramp-up momentum, with daily TSA reports through May 17 offering critical updates to break the deadlock.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between May 11, 2026 and May 17, 2026 (inclusive).
The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for any of the dates from May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026 by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for any of the dates from May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026 by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: May 9, 2026, 12:33 PM ET
Volumen
$569Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 9, 2026, 12:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between May 11, 2026 and May 17, 2026 (inclusive).
The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for any of the dates from May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026 by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects steady TSA checkpoint throughput averaging 2.4 million passengers daily in early May 2026, pushing implied probabilities for 16.5-18 million total screenings into a tight race around 25-28% each, with <16.5 million a distant 4.5%. Recent data through May 7 tallied nearly 17 million for the prior week amid record spring travel recovery and TSA's addition of 1,000 officers to handle surging volumes, yet slight airline capacity cuts (down 0.3% for May post-Spirit adjustments) temper upside potential. Key swing factors include post-Mother's Day lulls early in the week versus weekend peaks and summer ramp-up momentum, with daily TSA reports through May 17 offering critical updates to break the deadlock.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between May 11, 2026 and May 17, 2026 (inclusive).
The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for any of the dates from May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026 by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for any of the dates from May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026 by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Volumen
$569Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 9, 2026, 12:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects steady TSA checkpoint throughput averaging 2.4 million passengers daily in early May 2026, pushing implied probabilities for 16.5-18 million total screenings into a tight race around 25-28% each, with <16.5 million a distant 4.5%. Recent data through May 7 tallied nearly 17 million for the prior week amid record spring travel recovery and TSA's addition of 1,000 officers to handle surging volumes, yet slight airline capacity cuts (down 0.3% for May post-Spirit adjustments) temper upside potential. Key swing factors include post-Mother's Day lulls early in the week versus weekend peaks and summer ramp-up momentum, with daily TSA reports through May 17 offering critical updates to break the deadlock.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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