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icon for MLB: 4-homer game in 2026?

MLB: 4-homer game in 2026?

icon for MLB: 4-homer game in 2026?

MLB: 4-homer game in 2026?

34% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
34% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Four-homer games remain exceptionally rare in MLB, with only 21-22 instances across more than a century of play.** No such performance has occurred through mid-June 2026, even as power hitters like Kyle Schwarber and Yordan Alvarez pace the league with 24 home runs each. The 2025 season produced an unprecedented three examples—Eugenio Suárez, Nick Kurtz, and Schwarber—but that outlier year does not alter the long-term rate of roughly one every five to six seasons. **Trader pricing reflects this scarcity.** With roughly half the regular season remaining, the implied 25.5% probability for a 4-HR game accounts for elevated offensive environments and strong individual pace, while still weighting the historical barriers: specific matchup, ballpark, and pitching factors required for one player to reach four in nine innings. No confirmed roster or injury developments have materially shifted expectations for the power leaders.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3
Fecha de finalización
28 sep 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Four-homer games remain exceptionally rare in MLB, with only 21-22 instances across more than a century of play.** No such performance has occurred through mid-June 2026, even as power hitters like Kyle Schwarber and Yordan Alvarez pace the league with 24 home runs each. The 2025 season produced an unprecedented three examples—Eugenio Suárez, Nick Kurtz, and Schwarber—but that outlier year does not alter the long-term rate of roughly one every five to six seasons. **Trader pricing reflects this scarcity.** With roughly half the regular season remaining, the implied 25.5% probability for a 4-HR game accounts for elevated offensive environments and strong individual pace, while still weighting the historical barriers: specific matchup, ballpark, and pitching factors required for one player to reach four in nine innings. No confirmed roster or injury developments have materially shifted expectations for the power leaders.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3
Fecha de finalización
28 sep 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any player hits four or more home runs in a single game during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Four home runs by a player in any length regular season game will count toward resolution. Inside-the-park home runs will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined if a player hit four home runs in a single game within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"MLB: 4-homer game in 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 25% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 25¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 25% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"MLB: 4-homer game in 2026?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 28, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "MLB: 4-homer game in 2026?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "MLB: 4-homer game in 2026?" es 25% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 25% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "MLB: 4-homer game in 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.