Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability for "No" on Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau announcing an engagement by December 31, 2026, despite their confirmed romance heating up. The couple, publicly dating since Instagram-official posts in December 2025 following summer sightings in Montreal, has shared affectionate updates—like Perry's April 7 carousel featuring a hand-on-heart photo captioned "karma so rewarding"—and made joint appearances at Coachella, Davos, and ski trips. Sources close to them describe the long-distance dynamic as "much more serious," with Trudeau's brother noting he's "falling in love," yet both prioritize co-parenting post-divorces amid a 13-year age gap. No verified engagement signals or proposals have emerged in nine months, tempering expectations for a 2026 commitment amid celebrity relationship volatility.