**Traders see an overwhelming 79% implied probability that Justin Aguiar will not be convicted before 2027, driven primarily by the well-documented delays in Toronto’s Ontario Court of Justice.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and influencer also known as Justin Marc, was arrested in November 2025 and charged with one count of sexual assault stemming from an alleged 2024 incident; he appeared in court in January 2026 with no reported resolution since. Multiple women have publicly shared allegations, yet prior similar charges against him were withdrawn amid pandemic-era backlogs that continue to slow sexual assault prosecutions. Historical patterns show these cases frequently require 18–36 months or more to reach trial or plea, making a conviction within the roughly 18-month window from arrest to the end of 2026 unlikely. No recent court updates or plea announcements have shifted momentum, leaving procedural timelines as the dominant factor in trader consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Justin Aguiar condenado por agresión sexual antes de 2027?
¿Justin Aguiar condenado por agresión sexual antes de 2027?
Sí
$52,404 Vol.
$52,404 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$52,404 Vol.
$52,404 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Traders see an overwhelming 79% implied probability that Justin Aguiar will not be convicted before 2027, driven primarily by the well-documented delays in Toronto’s Ontario Court of Justice.**
Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and influencer also known as Justin Marc, was arrested in November 2025 and charged with one count of sexual assault stemming from an alleged 2024 incident; he appeared in court in January 2026 with no reported resolution since. Multiple women have publicly shared allegations, yet prior similar charges against him were withdrawn amid pandemic-era backlogs that continue to slow sexual assault prosecutions. Historical patterns show these cases frequently require 18–36 months or more to reach trial or plea, making a conviction within the roughly 18-month window from arrest to the end of 2026 unlikely. No recent court updates or plea announcements have shifted momentum, leaving procedural timelines as the dominant factor in trader consensus.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
Volumen
$52,404Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Traders see an overwhelming 79% implied probability that Justin Aguiar will not be convicted before 2027, driven primarily by the well-documented delays in Toronto’s Ontario Court of Justice.**
Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and influencer also known as Justin Marc, was arrested in November 2025 and charged with one count of sexual assault stemming from an alleged 2024 incident; he appeared in court in January 2026 with no reported resolution since. Multiple women have publicly shared allegations, yet prior similar charges against him were withdrawn amid pandemic-era backlogs that continue to slow sexual assault prosecutions. Historical patterns show these cases frequently require 18–36 months or more to reach trial or plea, making a conviction within the roughly 18-month window from arrest to the end of 2026 unlikely. No recent court updates or plea announcements have shifted momentum, leaving procedural timelines as the dominant factor in trader consensus.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$52,404Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders see an overwhelming 79% implied probability that Justin Aguiar will not be convicted before 2027, driven primarily by the well-documented delays in Toronto’s Ontario Court of Justice.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and influencer also known as Justin Marc, was arrested in November 2025 and charged with one count of sexual assault stemming from an alleged 2024 incident; he appeared in court in January 2026 with no reported resolution since. Multiple women have publicly shared allegations, yet prior similar charges against him were withdrawn amid pandemic-era backlogs that continue to slow sexual assault prosecutions. Historical patterns show these cases frequently require 18–36 months or more to reach trial or plea, making a conviction within the roughly 18-month window from arrest to the end of 2026 unlikely. No recent court updates or plea announcements have shifted momentum, leaving procedural timelines as the dominant factor in trader consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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