Recent labor market softening and mixed inflation signals have created tightly contested probabilities for the June nonfarm payrolls report, with the 0–50k, 50k–100k, and 200k+ ranges each implying roughly 39% odds. Traders are balancing prior months’ downward revisions, a gradually rising unemployment rate, and resilient consumer spending against potential stabilization in hiring. Key swing factors include the upcoming June CPI release, weekly jobless claims trends, and any Federal Reserve commentary that could shift rate-cut expectations before the July employment data. This narrow distribution reflects genuine uncertainty in the data trajectory rather than consensus around a single outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0 – 50 mil 37%
200k+ 37%
150 mil – 200 mil 35%
50.000 – 100.000 33%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 jul 2026
<0
11%
0 – 50 mil
37%
50.000 – 100.000
33%
100.000 – 150.000
32%
150 mil – 200 mil
35%
200k+
37%
0 – 50 mil 37%
200k+ 37%
150 mil – 200 mil 35%
50.000 – 100.000 33%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 jul 2026
<0
$51 Vol.
11%
0 – 50 mil
$41 Vol.
37%
50.000 – 100.000
$0 Vol.
33%
100.000 – 150.000
$40 Vol.
32%
150 mil – 200 mil
$0 Vol.
35%
200k+
$0 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent labor market softening and mixed inflation signals have created tightly contested probabilities for the June nonfarm payrolls report, with the 0–50k, 50k–100k, and 200k+ ranges each implying roughly 39% odds. Traders are balancing prior months’ downward revisions, a gradually rising unemployment rate, and resilient consumer spending against potential stabilization in hiring. Key swing factors include the upcoming June CPI release, weekly jobless claims trends, and any Federal Reserve commentary that could shift rate-cut expectations before the July employment data. This narrow distribution reflects genuine uncertainty in the data trajectory rather than consensus around a single outcome.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Mercado abierto: Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volumen
$132Fecha de finalización
3 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent labor market softening and mixed inflation signals have created tightly contested probabilities for the June nonfarm payrolls report, with the 0–50k, 50k–100k, and 200k+ ranges each implying roughly 39% odds. Traders are balancing prior months’ downward revisions, a gradually rising unemployment rate, and resilient consumer spending against potential stabilization in hiring. Key swing factors include the upcoming June CPI release, weekly jobless claims trends, and any Federal Reserve commentary that could shift rate-cut expectations before the July employment data. This narrow distribution reflects genuine uncertainty in the data trajectory rather than consensus around a single outcome.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volumen
$132Fecha de finalización
3 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent labor market softening and mixed inflation signals have created tightly contested probabilities for the June nonfarm payrolls report, with the 0–50k, 50k–100k, and 200k+ ranges each implying roughly 39% odds. Traders are balancing prior months’ downward revisions, a gradually rising unemployment rate, and resilient consumer spending against potential stabilization in hiring. Key swing factors include the upcoming June CPI release, weekly jobless claims trends, and any Federal Reserve commentary that could shift rate-cut expectations before the July employment data. This narrow distribution reflects genuine uncertainty in the data trajectory rather than consensus around a single outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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