Polymarket's trader consensus prices subdued April nonfarm payroll growth in a tight contest, with 50k–100k (30%) slightly ahead of 100k–150k (29%) and 0–50k (26%), reflecting aggregated capital bets on a cooling labor market amid mixed signals. The primary driver is ADP's preliminary National Employment Report showing U.S. private employers added just 39,000 jobs per week on average through early April, implying annualized hiring near 156,000—far below March's 178,000 BLS print that rebounded from February's contraction. Resilient initial jobless claims at 189,000 for the week ended April 25 signal limited layoffs, but three-month payroll average slowed to 68,000, fueling debate on ADP's predictive power versus government hiring and revisions. Key differentiator: BLS release on May 8 could swing outcomes if private weakness dominates or offsets emerge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many jobs added in April?
How many jobs added in April?
50k – 100k 37%
0 – 50k 30%
-50k – 0 17.7%
100k – 150k 17%
<-50k
5%
-50k – 0
18%
0 – 50k
30%
50k – 100k
37%
100k – 150k
29%
150k – 200k
20%
200k – 250k
8%
250k+
2%
50k – 100k 37%
0 – 50k 30%
-50k – 0 17.7%
100k – 150k 17%
<-50k
5%
-50k – 0
18%
0 – 50k
30%
50k – 100k
37%
100k – 150k
29%
150k – 200k
20%
200k – 250k
8%
250k+
2%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket's trader consensus prices subdued April nonfarm payroll growth in a tight contest, with 50k–100k (30%) slightly ahead of 100k–150k (29%) and 0–50k (26%), reflecting aggregated capital bets on a cooling labor market amid mixed signals. The primary driver is ADP's preliminary National Employment Report showing U.S. private employers added just 39,000 jobs per week on average through early April, implying annualized hiring near 156,000—far below March's 178,000 BLS print that rebounded from February's contraction. Resilient initial jobless claims at 189,000 for the week ended April 25 signal limited layoffs, but three-month payroll average slowed to 68,000, fueling debate on ADP's predictive power versus government hiring and revisions. Key differentiator: BLS release on May 8 could swing outcomes if private weakness dominates or offsets emerge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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