Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on April nonfarm payrolls, have priced a 39.5% implied probability for 50k–100k jobs added, reflecting trader consensus on labor market deceleration after March's 178,000 gain and February's contraction. Primary catalyst: ADP's preliminary April data showing private employers averaging just 39,000 jobs weekly through mid-month—far below recent trends—coupled with contracting ISM manufacturing employment at 48.7 and services at 45.2. Elevated initial jobless claims near 200,000 through late April (easing to 189,000 last week) further dampen expectations, pricing notable downside risk including 26% for 0–50k and 22.6% for losses. Consensus forecasts hover near 120,000 ahead of tomorrow's BLS release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many jobs added in April?
How many jobs added in April?
50k – 100k 40%
100k – 150k 17%
150k – 200k 14%
0 – 50k 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 may 2026
<-50k
5%
-50k – 0
22%
0 – 50k
26%
50k – 100k
40%
100k – 150k
29%
150k – 200k
19%
200k – 250k
8%
250k+
2%
50k – 100k 40%
100k – 150k 17%
150k – 200k 14%
0 – 50k 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 may 2026
<-50k
$2,964 Vol.
5%
-50k – 0
$1,570 Vol.
22%
0 – 50k
$1,516 Vol.
26%
50k – 100k
$259 Vol.
40%
100k – 150k
$308 Vol.
29%
150k – 200k
$392 Vol.
19%
200k – 250k
$261 Vol.
8%
250k+
$1,458 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for April 2026, scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmPolymarket traders, wagering real capital on April nonfarm payrolls, have priced a 39.5% implied probability for 50k–100k jobs added, reflecting trader consensus on labor market deceleration after March's 178,000 gain and February's contraction. Primary catalyst: ADP's preliminary April data showing private employers averaging just 39,000 jobs weekly through mid-month—far below recent trends—coupled with contracting ISM manufacturing employment at 48.7 and services at 45.2. Elevated initial jobless claims near 200,000 through late April (easing to 189,000 last week) further dampen expectations, pricing notable downside risk including 26% for 0–50k and 22.6% for losses. Consensus forecasts hover near 120,000 ahead of tomorrow's BLS release.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for April 2026, scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Volumen
$8,729Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for April 2026, scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmPolymarket traders, wagering real capital on April nonfarm payrolls, have priced a 39.5% implied probability for 50k–100k jobs added, reflecting trader consensus on labor market deceleration after March's 178,000 gain and February's contraction. Primary catalyst: ADP's preliminary April data showing private employers averaging just 39,000 jobs weekly through mid-month—far below recent trends—coupled with contracting ISM manufacturing employment at 48.7 and services at 45.2. Elevated initial jobless claims near 200,000 through late April (easing to 189,000 last week) further dampen expectations, pricing notable downside risk including 26% for 0–50k and 22.6% for losses. Consensus forecasts hover near 120,000 ahead of tomorrow's BLS release.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for April 2026, scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volumen
$8,729Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on April nonfarm payrolls, have priced a 39.5% implied probability for 50k–100k jobs added, reflecting trader consensus on labor market deceleration after March's 178,000 gain and February's contraction. Primary catalyst: ADP's preliminary April data showing private employers averaging just 39,000 jobs weekly through mid-month—far below recent trends—coupled with contracting ISM manufacturing employment at 48.7 and services at 45.2. Elevated initial jobless claims near 200,000 through late April (easing to 189,000 last week) further dampen expectations, pricing notable downside risk including 26% for 0–50k and 22.6% for losses. Consensus forecasts hover near 120,000 ahead of tomorrow's BLS release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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