The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3% through May 2026, remaining in a tight 4.3-4.5% band since mid-2025 amid modest nonfarm payroll gains averaging around 170,000 monthly and elevated long-term unemployment above 1.8 million. Traders are pricing limited upside risk for the 2026 peak given resilient labor demand in services and healthcare, though softening indicators such as subdued labor force participation at 61.8% and policy headwinds from tariffs could push the rate higher if growth slows. Consensus forecasts anticipate stability near current levels through year-end, with the next BLS release on July 2 and upcoming FOMC decisions serving as key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities if data reveal accelerating weakness.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$436,718 Vol.
10 ene 2026
5,0%
17%
5.5%
8%
6.0%
8%
7.0%
4%
10,0%
1%
$436,718 Vol.
5,0%
$113,371 Vol.
17%
5.5%
$192,386 Vol.
8%
6.0%
$61,041 Vol.
8%
7.0%
$28,037 Vol.
4%
10,0%
$41,882 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3% through May 2026, remaining in a tight 4.3-4.5% band since mid-2025 amid modest nonfarm payroll gains averaging around 170,000 monthly and elevated long-term unemployment above 1.8 million. Traders are pricing limited upside risk for the 2026 peak given resilient labor demand in services and healthcare, though softening indicators such as subdued labor force participation at 61.8% and policy headwinds from tariffs could push the rate higher if growth slows. Consensus forecasts anticipate stability near current levels through year-end, with the next BLS release on July 2 and upcoming FOMC decisions serving as key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities if data reveal accelerating weakness.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volumen
$436,718Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3% through May 2026, remaining in a tight 4.3-4.5% band since mid-2025 amid modest nonfarm payroll gains averaging around 170,000 monthly and elevated long-term unemployment above 1.8 million. Traders are pricing limited upside risk for the 2026 peak given resilient labor demand in services and healthcare, though softening indicators such as subdued labor force participation at 61.8% and policy headwinds from tariffs could push the rate higher if growth slows. Consensus forecasts anticipate stability near current levels through year-end, with the next BLS release on July 2 and upcoming FOMC decisions serving as key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities if data reveal accelerating weakness.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$436,718Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3% through May 2026, remaining in a tight 4.3-4.5% band since mid-2025 amid modest nonfarm payroll gains averaging around 170,000 monthly and elevated long-term unemployment above 1.8 million. Traders are pricing limited upside risk for the 2026 peak given resilient labor demand in services and healthcare, though softening indicators such as subdued labor force participation at 61.8% and policy headwinds from tariffs could push the rate higher if growth slows. Consensus forecasts anticipate stability near current levels through year-end, with the next BLS release on July 2 and upcoming FOMC decisions serving as key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities if data reveal accelerating weakness.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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