Polymarket traders' closely contested implied probabilities—27.5% for $4,600-$5,000 settlement and 25.7% for $4,200-$4,600—reflect gold futures (GCM26) hovering near $4,600 amid a recent pullback from 2026 peaks above $5,600, driven by U.S. dollar strength above DXY 98.5 and 10-year Treasury yields climbing to 4.3-4.4%, which erode the non-yielding asset's appeal as Federal Reserve rate-cut odds fade post-steady policy stance. Upside risks hinge on persistent central bank buying and geopolitical flare-ups, while downside pressures stem from stubborn inflation tied to surging oil prices; key differentiators include May 2 nonfarm payrolls, May 15 CPI, and May 7-8 FOMC outcomes that could pivot rate path expectations toward June resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿En qué se liquidará el oro (GC) en junio?
¿En qué se liquidará el oro (GC) en junio?
$4,600-$5,000 28%
$4,200-$4,600 25.6%
$5,000-$5,400 15.0%
$3,800-$4,200 13.2%
$913,578 Vol.
$913,578 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<$3,800
6%
$3,800-$4,200
13%
$4,200-$4,600
26%
$4,600-$5,000
28%
$5,000-$5,400
15%
$5,400-$5,800
10%
$5,800-$6,200
4%
>$6,200
3%
$4,600-$5,000 28%
$4,200-$4,600 25.6%
$5,000-$5,400 15.0%
$3,800-$4,200 13.2%
$913,578 Vol.
$913,578 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<$3,800
$222,079 Vol.
6%
$3,800-$4,200
$48,217 Vol.
13%
$4,200-$4,600
$52,147 Vol.
26%
$4,600-$5,000
$46,764 Vol.
28%
$5,000-$5,400
$55,981 Vol.
15%
$5,400-$5,800
$51,389 Vol.
10%
$5,800-$6,200
$244,504 Vol.
4%
>$6,200
$192,497 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.Polymarket traders' closely contested implied probabilities—27.5% for $4,600-$5,000 settlement and 25.7% for $4,200-$4,600—reflect gold futures (GCM26) hovering near $4,600 amid a recent pullback from 2026 peaks above $5,600, driven by U.S. dollar strength above DXY 98.5 and 10-year Treasury yields climbing to 4.3-4.4%, which erode the non-yielding asset's appeal as Federal Reserve rate-cut odds fade post-steady policy stance. Upside risks hinge on persistent central bank buying and geopolitical flare-ups, while downside pressures stem from stubborn inflation tied to surging oil prices; key differentiators include May 2 nonfarm payrolls, May 15 CPI, and May 7-8 FOMC outcomes that could pivot rate path expectations toward June resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Mercado abierto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Volumen
$913,578Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.htmlResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.Polymarket traders' closely contested implied probabilities—27.5% for $4,600-$5,000 settlement and 25.7% for $4,200-$4,600—reflect gold futures (GCM26) hovering near $4,600 amid a recent pullback from 2026 peaks above $5,600, driven by U.S. dollar strength above DXY 98.5 and 10-year Treasury yields climbing to 4.3-4.4%, which erode the non-yielding asset's appeal as Federal Reserve rate-cut odds fade post-steady policy stance. Upside risks hinge on persistent central bank buying and geopolitical flare-ups, while downside pressures stem from stubborn inflation tied to surging oil prices; key differentiators include May 2 nonfarm payrolls, May 15 CPI, and May 7-8 FOMC outcomes that could pivot rate path expectations toward June resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Volumen
$913,578Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.htmlResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely contested implied probabilities—27.5% for $4,600-$5,000 settlement and 25.7% for $4,200-$4,600—reflect gold futures (GCM26) hovering near $4,600 amid a recent pullback from 2026 peaks above $5,600, driven by U.S. dollar strength above DXY 98.5 and 10-year Treasury yields climbing to 4.3-4.4%, which erode the non-yielding asset's appeal as Federal Reserve rate-cut odds fade post-steady policy stance. Upside risks hinge on persistent central bank buying and geopolitical flare-ups, while downside pressures stem from stubborn inflation tied to surging oil prices; key differentiators include May 2 nonfarm payrolls, May 15 CPI, and May 7-8 FOMC outcomes that could pivot rate path expectations toward June resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes