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icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Elecciones·Elecciones Francesas

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Elecciones·Elecciones Francesas

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

NUEVO
23 abr 2027
Polymarket

$857 Vol.

Polymarket

Éric Zemmour

$20 Vol.

73%

Jordan Bardella

$116 Vol.

64%

Michel Barnier

$48 Vol.

43%

Valérie Pécresse

$5 Vol.

27%

Gabriel Attal

$148 Vol.

85%

Élisabeth Borne

$41 Vol.

70%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$0 Vol.

50%

Jean Castex

$21 Vol.

29%

Gérald Darmanin

$61 Vol.

74%

Sébastien Lecornu

$0 Vol.

27%

François Bayrou

$18 Vol.

26%

Bernard Cazeneuve

$41 Vol.

58%

Carole Delga

$50 Vol.

53%

Olivier Faure

$25 Vol.

59%

François Hollande

$44 Vol.

58%

Raphaël Glucksmann

$19 Vol.

43%

Manuel Bompard

$0 Vol.

28%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$95 Vol.

78%

Mathilde Panot

$32 Vol.

27%

Dominique de Villepin

$11 Vol.

62%

Marine Le Pen

$63 Vol.

34%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.With Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from a third consecutive term in the April 2027 presidential election, France's fragmented political field—stemming from the 2024 legislative dissolution and subsequent hung parliament—has spurred a record number of early declarations in 2026. Following inconclusive March municipal elections, key announcements include Les Républicains leader Bruno Retailleau's formal party selection on April 19, Socialist deputy Jérôme Guedj's February 5 entry excluding a left primary, David Lisnard's March 31 exit from LR to run independently, and former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve's April 28 signal of readiness to rally center-left forces. Traders eye uncertainties like Marine Le Pen's July 7 eligibility appeal and the left's October 11 primary, which could trigger additional candidacies needing 500 parrainages by March 2027.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$857
Fecha de finalización
23 abr 2027
Mercado abierto
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.With Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from a third consecutive term in the April 2027 presidential election, France's fragmented political field—stemming from the 2024 legislative dissolution and subsequent hung parliament—has spurred a record number of early declarations in 2026. Following inconclusive March municipal elections, key announcements include Les Républicains leader Bruno Retailleau's formal party selection on April 19, Socialist deputy Jérôme Guedj's February 5 entry excluding a left primary, David Lisnard's March 31 exit from LR to run independently, and former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve's April 28 signal of readiness to rally center-left forces. Traders eye uncertainties like Marine Le Pen's July 7 eligibility appeal and the left's October 11 primary, which could trigger additional candidacies needing 500 parrainages by March 2027.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$857
Fecha de finalización
23 abr 2027
Mercado abierto
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 21 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Gabriel Attal" con 85%, seguido de "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" con 79%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 85¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 85% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 22, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?", explora los 21 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" es "Gabriel Attal" con 85%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 85% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" con 79%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.