The 85.5% implied probability for "No" on repeal of the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions—enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and effective for 2026 tax year—reflects stalled bipartisan legislative efforts amid procedural hurdles in the Republican-controlled House. The House Rules Committee rejected the FAIR BET Act amendment last week, blocking a path to floor consideration, while H.R. 6985 (FULL HOUSE Act) by Reps. Horsford (D-NV) and Miller (R-OH), and a Senate bill backed by Sen. Cruz (R-TX), remain without scheduled votes. IRS proposed regulations on April 17 formalized implementation, prioritizing revenue safeguards over industry-backed repeal pushes despite negligible fiscal cost per Joint Committee on Taxation estimates. No major catalysts loom before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$65,282 Vol.
$65,282 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$65,282 Vol.
$65,282 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 85.5% implied probability for "No" on repeal of the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions—enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and effective for 2026 tax year—reflects stalled bipartisan legislative efforts amid procedural hurdles in the Republican-controlled House. The House Rules Committee rejected the FAIR BET Act amendment last week, blocking a path to floor consideration, while H.R. 6985 (FULL HOUSE Act) by Reps. Horsford (D-NV) and Miller (R-OH), and a Senate bill backed by Sen. Cruz (R-TX), remain without scheduled votes. IRS proposed regulations on April 17 formalized implementation, prioritizing revenue safeguards over industry-backed repeal pushes despite negligible fiscal cost per Joint Committee on Taxation estimates. No major catalysts loom before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Volumen
$65,282Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 85.5% implied probability for "No" on repeal of the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions—enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and effective for 2026 tax year—reflects stalled bipartisan legislative efforts amid procedural hurdles in the Republican-controlled House. The House Rules Committee rejected the FAIR BET Act amendment last week, blocking a path to floor consideration, while H.R. 6985 (FULL HOUSE Act) by Reps. Horsford (D-NV) and Miller (R-OH), and a Senate bill backed by Sen. Cruz (R-TX), remain without scheduled votes. IRS proposed regulations on April 17 formalized implementation, prioritizing revenue safeguards over industry-backed repeal pushes despite negligible fiscal cost per Joint Committee on Taxation estimates. No major catalysts loom before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$65,282Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 85.5% implied probability for "No" on repeal of the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions—enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and effective for 2026 tax year—reflects stalled bipartisan legislative efforts amid procedural hurdles in the Republican-controlled House. The House Rules Committee rejected the FAIR BET Act amendment last week, blocking a path to floor consideration, while H.R. 6985 (FULL HOUSE Act) by Reps. Horsford (D-NV) and Miller (R-OH), and a Senate bill backed by Sen. Cruz (R-TX), remain without scheduled votes. IRS proposed regulations on April 17 formalized implementation, prioritizing revenue safeguards over industry-backed repeal pushes despite negligible fiscal cost per Joint Committee on Taxation estimates. No major catalysts loom before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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