**Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate stands near 1,430 in mid-June 2026 amid a managed crawling band that widens monthly with lagged inflation.** The closely matched 42% probability for a sub-1,600 close and 47.5% for the 1,600–1,699 bracket reflects trader focus on the pace of disinflation versus reserve-accumulation needs under the IMF program. BCRA daily FX purchases (roughly $7.5 billion year-to-date) and the recent S&P upgrade to B-/B have supported peso stability and real appreciation since late 2025, yet May inflation at 33.6% and the band’s inflation-linked adjustment continue to embed gradual depreciation. Key swing factors through year-end include the trajectory of monthly price pressures, monetary-aggregate targets, and any pre-election policy shifts ahead of 2027. Markets price these probabilities with real capital at risk, underscoring uncertainty around whether stabilization gains can outpace remaining relative-price corrections.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$18,607 Vol.
$18,607 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<1600,00
42%
1600,00–1699,99
50%
1700,00–1799,99
7%
1800,00–1899,99
4%
1900,00–1999,99
2%
2000,00+
7%
$18,607 Vol.
$18,607 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<1600,00
$2,008 Vol.
42%
1600,00–1699,99
$1,468 Vol.
50%
1700,00–1799,99
$1,222 Vol.
7%
1800,00–1899,99
$1,114 Vol.
4%
1900,00–1999,99
$11,360 Vol.
2%
2000,00+
$1,435 Vol.
7%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate stands near 1,430 in mid-June 2026 amid a managed crawling band that widens monthly with lagged inflation.** The closely matched 42% probability for a sub-1,600 close and 47.5% for the 1,600–1,699 bracket reflects trader focus on the pace of disinflation versus reserve-accumulation needs under the IMF program. BCRA daily FX purchases (roughly $7.5 billion year-to-date) and the recent S&P upgrade to B-/B have supported peso stability and real appreciation since late 2025, yet May inflation at 33.6% and the band’s inflation-linked adjustment continue to embed gradual depreciation. Key swing factors through year-end include the trajectory of monthly price pressures, monetary-aggregate targets, and any pre-election policy shifts ahead of 2027. Markets price these probabilities with real capital at risk, underscoring uncertainty around whether stabilization gains can outpace remaining relative-price corrections.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volumen
$18,607Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate stands near 1,430 in mid-June 2026 amid a managed crawling band that widens monthly with lagged inflation.** The closely matched 42% probability for a sub-1,600 close and 47.5% for the 1,600–1,699 bracket reflects trader focus on the pace of disinflation versus reserve-accumulation needs under the IMF program. BCRA daily FX purchases (roughly $7.5 billion year-to-date) and the recent S&P upgrade to B-/B have supported peso stability and real appreciation since late 2025, yet May inflation at 33.6% and the band’s inflation-linked adjustment continue to embed gradual depreciation. Key swing factors through year-end include the trajectory of monthly price pressures, monetary-aggregate targets, and any pre-election policy shifts ahead of 2027. Markets price these probabilities with real capital at risk, underscoring uncertainty around whether stabilization gains can outpace remaining relative-price corrections.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$18,607Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate stands near 1,430 in mid-June 2026 amid a managed crawling band that widens monthly with lagged inflation.** The closely matched 42% probability for a sub-1,600 close and 47.5% for the 1,600–1,699 bracket reflects trader focus on the pace of disinflation versus reserve-accumulation needs under the IMF program. BCRA daily FX purchases (roughly $7.5 billion year-to-date) and the recent S&P upgrade to B-/B have supported peso stability and real appreciation since late 2025, yet May inflation at 33.6% and the band’s inflation-linked adjustment continue to embed gradual depreciation. Key swing factors through year-end include the trajectory of monthly price pressures, monetary-aggregate targets, and any pre-election policy shifts ahead of 2027. Markets price these probabilities with real capital at risk, underscoring uncertainty around whether stabilization gains can outpace remaining relative-price corrections.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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