Polymarket traders are closely split on Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate by year-end 2026, with 1600+ implying 50.5% probability edging out 1300–1349.99 at 46.9%, reflecting uncertainty over inflation persistence under President Milei's crawling band regime, where bands expand monthly with inflation rates. March 2026 consumer prices rose 3.4% month-over-month—the highest year-to-date—pushing cumulative Q1 inflation to 9.4% amid disinflation to projected 30% annual averages, fueling debates on devaluation pace from the current ~1400 level within BCRA bands (820–1700). Recent FX control easing and reserve gains signal policy progress, but rising country risk near 600 basis points highlights vulnerabilities; April CPI data, due early May, and IMF milestones will be pivotal swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1350,00–1399,99 10.8%
1450,00–1499,99 2.2%
<1250,00 0
1250,00–1299,99 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
<1250,00
42%
1250,00–1299,99
28%
1300,00–1349,99
42%
1350,00–1399,99
25%
1400,00–1449,99
37%
1450,00–1499,99
15%
1500,00–1549,99
38%
1550,00–1599,99
43%
1600.00+
51%
1350,00–1399,99 10.8%
1450,00–1499,99 2.2%
<1250,00 0
1250,00–1299,99 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
<1250,00
$301 Vol.
42%
1250,00–1299,99
$387 Vol.
28%
1300,00–1349,99
$0 Vol.
42%
1350,00–1399,99
$375 Vol.
25%
1400,00–1449,99
$664 Vol.
37%
1450,00–1499,99
$876 Vol.
15%
1500,00–1549,99
$672 Vol.
38%
1550,00–1599,99
$409 Vol.
43%
1600.00+
$1,360 Vol.
51%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders are closely split on Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate by year-end 2026, with 1600+ implying 50.5% probability edging out 1300–1349.99 at 46.9%, reflecting uncertainty over inflation persistence under President Milei's crawling band regime, where bands expand monthly with inflation rates. March 2026 consumer prices rose 3.4% month-over-month—the highest year-to-date—pushing cumulative Q1 inflation to 9.4% amid disinflation to projected 30% annual averages, fueling debates on devaluation pace from the current ~1400 level within BCRA bands (820–1700). Recent FX control easing and reserve gains signal policy progress, but rising country risk near 600 basis points highlights vulnerabilities; April CPI data, due early May, and IMF milestones will be pivotal swing factors.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volumen
$5,043Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders are closely split on Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate by year-end 2026, with 1600+ implying 50.5% probability edging out 1300–1349.99 at 46.9%, reflecting uncertainty over inflation persistence under President Milei's crawling band regime, where bands expand monthly with inflation rates. March 2026 consumer prices rose 3.4% month-over-month—the highest year-to-date—pushing cumulative Q1 inflation to 9.4% amid disinflation to projected 30% annual averages, fueling debates on devaluation pace from the current ~1400 level within BCRA bands (820–1700). Recent FX control easing and reserve gains signal policy progress, but rising country risk near 600 basis points highlights vulnerabilities; April CPI data, due early May, and IMF milestones will be pivotal swing factors.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$5,043Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders are closely split on Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate by year-end 2026, with 1600+ implying 50.5% probability edging out 1300–1349.99 at 46.9%, reflecting uncertainty over inflation persistence under President Milei's crawling band regime, where bands expand monthly with inflation rates. March 2026 consumer prices rose 3.4% month-over-month—the highest year-to-date—pushing cumulative Q1 inflation to 9.4% amid disinflation to projected 30% annual averages, fueling debates on devaluation pace from the current ~1400 level within BCRA bands (820–1700). Recent FX control easing and reserve gains signal policy progress, but rising country risk near 600 basis points highlights vulnerabilities; April CPI data, due early May, and IMF milestones will be pivotal swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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