Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate trades near 1,430 in mid-June 2026 under President Milei’s crawling-band regime, which adjusts monthly in line with lagged inflation. Persistent though declining price pressures—annual inflation near 33% in May—combined with the need to rebuild depleted reserves and service substantial external debt payments later this year continue to pressure the peso. Market-implied odds favor a move above 1,600 by year-end because traders price in ongoing nominal depreciation to support reserve accumulation and maintain competitiveness, even as fiscal surpluses and multilateral support reduce tail risks of sharper devaluation. Lower bands around 1,400–1,550 reflect scenarios of faster disinflation or stronger capital inflows that could slow the crawl.