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Geopolítica·ONU

António Guterres out by December 31?

icon for António Guterres out by December 31?
Geopolítica·ONU

António Guterres out by December 31?

23% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
23% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The UN Secretary-General selection process for António Guterres' successor advanced in April 2026 with candidate hearings before member states, including figures like Rafael Grossi and Michelle Bachelet, confirming his second term—ending December 31, 2026—remains on track without early departure signals. Absent any official resignation announcements, health concerns, or credible removal pressures from the Security Council or General Assembly, traders price a 77.5% "No" probability on premature exit, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in a position with fixed five-year terms and regional rotation norms. Guterres continues active diplomacy on issues like US-Iran tensions and UN funding shortfalls, bolstering continuity expectations ahead of autumn appointment votes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,558
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The UN Secretary-General selection process for António Guterres' successor advanced in April 2026 with candidate hearings before member states, including figures like Rafael Grossi and Michelle Bachelet, confirming his second term—ending December 31, 2026—remains on track without early departure signals. Absent any official resignation announcements, health concerns, or credible removal pressures from the Security Council or General Assembly, traders price a 77.5% "No" probability on premature exit, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in a position with fixed five-year terms and regional rotation norms. Guterres continues active diplomacy on issues like US-Iran tensions and UN funding shortfalls, bolstering continuity expectations ahead of autumn appointment votes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,558
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"António Guterres out by December 31?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 23% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 23¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 23% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"António Guterres out by December 31?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 21, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "António Guterres out by December 31?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "António Guterres out by December 31?" es 23% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 23% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "António Guterres out by December 31?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.