Incumbent Partido Popular (PP) under President Juanma Moreno commands trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability to win the most seats in Andalusia's May 17, 2026, regional parliament election, driven by consistent late-April polls from CIS Andaluz, GAD3, and Sigma Dos projecting PP near absolute majority (55+ of 109 seats) with 42-45% support—nearly double PSOE-A's amid the socialists' historic decline and internal turmoil. This builds on PP's 2022 absolute majority victory and steady incumbency advantages, with VOX stable but distant. Campaign launches May 2, but low odds of upset persist absent a major scandal, unified left surge, or turnout swing favoring opposition in this proportional representation system.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones en Andalucía
Ganador de las elecciones en Andalucía
PP 99.3%
VOX <1%
PSOE-A <1%
PA <1%
$33,633 Vol.
$33,633 Vol.
17 may 2026
PP
99%
PSOE-A
<1%
VOX
1%
PA
<1%
AA
<1%
PP 99.3%
VOX <1%
PSOE-A <1%
PA <1%
$33,633 Vol.
$33,633 Vol.
17 may 2026
PP
$14,169 Vol.
99%
PSOE-A
$5,251 Vol.
<1%
VOX
$10,593 Vol.
1%
PA
$1,939 Vol.
<1%
AA
$1,682 Vol.
<1%
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.Incumbent Partido Popular (PP) under President Juanma Moreno commands trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability to win the most seats in Andalusia's May 17, 2026, regional parliament election, driven by consistent late-April polls from CIS Andaluz, GAD3, and Sigma Dos projecting PP near absolute majority (55+ of 109 seats) with 42-45% support—nearly double PSOE-A's amid the socialists' historic decline and internal turmoil. This builds on PP's 2022 absolute majority victory and steady incumbency advantages, with VOX stable but distant. Campaign launches May 2, but low odds of upset persist absent a major scandal, unified left surge, or turnout swing favoring opposition in this proportional representation system.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volumen
$33,633Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.Incumbent Partido Popular (PP) under President Juanma Moreno commands trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability to win the most seats in Andalusia's May 17, 2026, regional parliament election, driven by consistent late-April polls from CIS Andaluz, GAD3, and Sigma Dos projecting PP near absolute majority (55+ of 109 seats) with 42-45% support—nearly double PSOE-A's amid the socialists' historic decline and internal turmoil. This builds on PP's 2022 absolute majority victory and steady incumbency advantages, with VOX stable but distant. Campaign launches May 2, but low odds of upset persist absent a major scandal, unified left surge, or turnout swing favoring opposition in this proportional representation system.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
Volumen
$33,633Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Partido Popular (PP) under President Juanma Moreno commands trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability to win the most seats in Andalusia's May 17, 2026, regional parliament election, driven by consistent late-April polls from CIS Andaluz, GAD3, and Sigma Dos projecting PP near absolute majority (55+ of 109 seats) with 42-45% support—nearly double PSOE-A's amid the socialists' historic decline and internal turmoil. This builds on PP's 2022 absolute majority victory and steady incumbency advantages, with VOX stable but distant. Campaign launches May 2, but low odds of upset persist absent a major scandal, unified left surge, or turnout swing favoring opposition in this proportional representation system.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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