Recent generic ballot polling through mid-June 2026 shows Democrats holding a consistent 4-6 point national lead, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the president's party faces headwinds from turnout and economic sentiment. This underpins trader pricing around Democratic margins of 6-10 points as leading outcomes, while "Other" captures elevated uncertainty over redistricting shifts, primary results, and potential late swings in voter coalitions. Forecasts from multiple models project Democrats gaining seats under current conditions, though resolution hinges on November vote shares across all districts rather than early polling alone. Scheduled summer and fall developments, including legislative votes and candidate announcements, could further adjust these implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2026 Parciales: Margen de victoria del voto popular de la Cámara
2026 Parciales: Margen de victoria del voto popular de la Cámara
Demócratas 8-10% 19%
Demócratas 6-8% 18%
Demócratas 10-12% 14%
Demócratas 12-14% 8.5%
$71,368 Vol.
$71,368 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Demócratas 16%+
4%
Demócratas 14-16%
2%
Demócratas 12-14%
9%
Demócratas 10-12%
14%
Demócratas 8-10%
19%
Demócratas 6-8%
18%
Demócratas 4-6%
9%
Demócratas 2-4%
6%
Demócratas 0-2%
4%
Republicanos 0-2%
7%
Republicanos 2-4%
7%
Republicanos 4-6%
2%
Republicanos 6%+
2%
Demócratas 8-10% 19%
Demócratas 6-8% 18%
Demócratas 10-12% 14%
Demócratas 12-14% 8.5%
$71,368 Vol.
$71,368 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Demócratas 16%+
$1,503 Vol.
4%
Demócratas 14-16%
$823 Vol.
2%
Demócratas 12-14%
$2,768 Vol.
9%
Demócratas 10-12%
$1,388 Vol.
14%
Demócratas 8-10%
$4,736 Vol.
19%
Demócratas 6-8%
$9,422 Vol.
18%
Demócratas 4-6%
$2,216 Vol.
9%
Demócratas 2-4%
$9,013 Vol.
6%
Demócratas 0-2%
$8,617 Vol.
4%
Republicanos 0-2%
$2,025 Vol.
7%
Republicanos 2-4%
$26,556 Vol.
7%
Republicanos 4-6%
$752 Vol.
2%
Republicanos 6%+
$1,550 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling through mid-June 2026 shows Democrats holding a consistent 4-6 point national lead, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the president's party faces headwinds from turnout and economic sentiment. This underpins trader pricing around Democratic margins of 6-10 points as leading outcomes, while "Other" captures elevated uncertainty over redistricting shifts, primary results, and potential late swings in voter coalitions. Forecasts from multiple models project Democrats gaining seats under current conditions, though resolution hinges on November vote shares across all districts rather than early polling alone. Scheduled summer and fall developments, including legislative votes and candidate announcements, could further adjust these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$71,368Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling through mid-June 2026 shows Democrats holding a consistent 4-6 point national lead, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the president's party faces headwinds from turnout and economic sentiment. This underpins trader pricing around Democratic margins of 6-10 points as leading outcomes, while "Other" captures elevated uncertainty over redistricting shifts, primary results, and potential late swings in voter coalitions. Forecasts from multiple models project Democrats gaining seats under current conditions, though resolution hinges on November vote shares across all districts rather than early polling alone. Scheduled summer and fall developments, including legislative votes and candidate announcements, could further adjust these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volumen
$71,368Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot polling through mid-June 2026 shows Democrats holding a consistent 4-6 point national lead, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the president's party faces headwinds from turnout and economic sentiment. This underpins trader pricing around Democratic margins of 6-10 points as leading outcomes, while "Other" captures elevated uncertainty over redistricting shifts, primary results, and potential late swings in voter coalitions. Forecasts from multiple models project Democrats gaining seats under current conditions, though resolution hinges on November vote shares across all districts rather than early polling alone. Scheduled summer and fall developments, including legislative votes and candidate announcements, could further adjust these implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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