**The near-certain 99.4% implied probability for at least one winless team reflects the structural realities of the expanded 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage.** Twelve groups of four mean the bottom-placed side in each pool is eliminated without points in most cases, and the draw has paired clear underdogs such as New Zealand, Haiti, Curaçao, Qatar, and South Africa against established sides including Belgium, Brazil, Germany, and the Netherlands. Early match results already show lopsided outcomes, consistent with historical patterns where every prior World Cup produced at least one side finishing group play with zero wins. Trader consensus incorporates this precedent, the depth of weaker nations, and limited recovery time between fixtures. The only realistic paths to “No” would require an unprecedented run of draws or upsets allowing every last-place team to secure at least one victory, an outcome that remains statistically improbable given the talent gaps and three-match schedule.