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icon for World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties?
Sports·FIFA World Cup

World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties?

icon for World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties?
Sports·FIFA World Cup

World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties?

48% chance
Polymarket
NEW
48% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve “Yes” if Lionel Messi scores two or more penalty kicks during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count. Penalty shootout goals do not count. A penalty must be scored to count toward the total; missed or saved penalties do not count. If Lionel Messi does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, this market will resolve to “50-50”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether Messi scored two or more penalties within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “50-50”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lionel Messi's recent left hamstring fatigue, which forced him off early in Inter Miami's final MLS match before the 2026 World Cup, has prompted cautious management by Argentina ahead of the tournament. At 38, the captain faces potential minutes restrictions and load management across friendlies and group-stage matches, reducing opportunities for penalty kicks in open play or shootouts. Argentina's strong squad and historical dominance limit the volume of close contests that typically generate multiple spot kicks, while Messi's established role as primary taker is tempered by age-related recovery needs and team depth. These factors underpin the market's lean toward No at 58% implied probability, reflecting trader assessment of limited realistic paths to two or more penalties in the event.

This market will resolve “Yes” if Lionel Messi scores two or more penalty kicks during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count. Penalty shootout goals do not count. A penalty must be scored to count toward the total; missed or saved penalties do not count.

If Lionel Messi does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, this market will resolve to “50-50”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether Messi scored two or more penalties within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “50-50”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$48
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 7, 2026, 12:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve “Yes” if Lionel Messi scores two or more penalty kicks during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count. Penalty shootout goals do not count. A penalty must be scored to count toward the total; missed or saved penalties do not count. If Lionel Messi does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, this market will resolve to “50-50”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether Messi scored two or more penalties within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “50-50”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve “Yes” if Lionel Messi scores two or more penalty kicks during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count. Penalty shootout goals do not count. A penalty must be scored to count toward the total; missed or saved penalties do not count. If Lionel Messi does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, this market will resolve to “50-50”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether Messi scored two or more penalties within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “50-50”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lionel Messi's recent left hamstring fatigue, which forced him off early in Inter Miami's final MLS match before the 2026 World Cup, has prompted cautious management by Argentina ahead of the tournament. At 38, the captain faces potential minutes restrictions and load management across friendlies and group-stage matches, reducing opportunities for penalty kicks in open play or shootouts. Argentina's strong squad and historical dominance limit the volume of close contests that typically generate multiple spot kicks, while Messi's established role as primary taker is tempered by age-related recovery needs and team depth. These factors underpin the market's lean toward No at 58% implied probability, reflecting trader assessment of limited realistic paths to two or more penalties in the event.

This market will resolve “Yes” if Lionel Messi scores two or more penalty kicks during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count. Penalty shootout goals do not count. A penalty must be scored to count toward the total; missed or saved penalties do not count.

If Lionel Messi does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, this market will resolve to “50-50”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether Messi scored two or more penalties within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “50-50”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$57
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 7, 2026, 12:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve “Yes” if Lionel Messi scores two or more penalty kicks during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time count. Penalty shootout goals do not count. A penalty must be scored to count toward the total; missed or saved penalties do not count. If Lionel Messi does not play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup for any reason, this market will resolve to “50-50”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether Messi scored two or more penalties within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “50-50”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 42% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 42¢, the market collectively assigns a 42% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 7, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties?" is 42% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 42% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.