Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate Tokyo’s June 11 overnight low will most likely settle near 17–18 °C amid the early tsuyu rainy-season pattern of persistent cloud cover and light showers. These conditions limit radiational cooling while steering patterns keep maritime air in place, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those two values. Historical June normals place the average minimum at roughly 18 °C, providing a stable baseline that recent model runs have not yet deviated from significantly. As the date nears, updated JMA guidance and finer-resolution ensemble outputs will refine the exact threshold, with any shift in frontal timing or cloud thickness able to nudge the outcome between the leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on June 11?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 11?
18°C 36%
17°C 31%
19°C 21.9%
16°C 11.5%
NEW
NEW
Jun 11, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
5%
16°C
12%
17°C
31%
18°C
28%
19°C
12%
20°C
5%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 36%
17°C 31%
19°C 21.9%
16°C 11.5%
NEW
NEW
Jun 11, 2026
13°C or below
$142 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$345 Vol.
1%
15°C
$0 Vol.
5%
16°C
$7 Vol.
12%
17°C
$19 Vol.
31%
18°C
$8 Vol.
28%
19°C
$24 Vol.
12%
20°C
$0 Vol.
5%
21°C
$345 Vol.
1%
22°C
$213 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate Tokyo’s June 11 overnight low will most likely settle near 17–18 °C amid the early tsuyu rainy-season pattern of persistent cloud cover and light showers. These conditions limit radiational cooling while steering patterns keep maritime air in place, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those two values. Historical June normals place the average minimum at roughly 18 °C, providing a stable baseline that recent model runs have not yet deviated from significantly. As the date nears, updated JMA guidance and finer-resolution ensemble outputs will refine the exact threshold, with any shift in frontal timing or cloud thickness able to nudge the outcome between the leading bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$1,103End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate Tokyo’s June 11 overnight low will most likely settle near 17–18 °C amid the early tsuyu rainy-season pattern of persistent cloud cover and light showers. These conditions limit radiational cooling while steering patterns keep maritime air in place, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those two values. Historical June normals place the average minimum at roughly 18 °C, providing a stable baseline that recent model runs have not yet deviated from significantly. As the date nears, updated JMA guidance and finer-resolution ensemble outputs will refine the exact threshold, with any shift in frontal timing or cloud thickness able to nudge the outcome between the leading bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,103End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate Tokyo’s June 11 overnight low will most likely settle near 17–18 °C amid the early tsuyu rainy-season pattern of persistent cloud cover and light showers. These conditions limit radiational cooling while steering patterns keep maritime air in place, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those two values. Historical June normals place the average minimum at roughly 18 °C, providing a stable baseline that recent model runs have not yet deviated from significantly. As the date nears, updated JMA guidance and finer-resolution ensemble outputs will refine the exact threshold, with any shift in frontal timing or cloud thickness able to nudge the outcome between the leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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