**Persistent lack of any official announcement or verified ring sighting keeps the implied probability of a 2026 engagement at roughly 20% for Yes.** Despite three-plus years together and early-2026 insider reports that Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet have discussed marriage and appear “very serious,” the couple has maintained a low-key profile with no public proposal, joint statement, or confirmed milestone. Recent coordinated appearances, including a June Knicks outing, briefly lifted the Yes side, yet traders continue to price in historical patterns where tabloid speculation far outpaces verifiable steps. The relationship’s private dynamic, combined with the remaining six months offering limited near-term catalysts beyond awards-season events, supports the strong market consensus favoring No.