Iran's Supreme Leader role shifted dramatically in March 2026 after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes, with the Assembly of Experts naming his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor amid IRGC pressure. Mojtaba sustained severe facial burns impairing speech and leg injuries necessitating multiple surgeries and a prospective prosthetic, keeping him absent from public view for over seven weeks; statements, including a defiant April 30 vow to safeguard nuclear and missile capabilities, are relayed via state TV anchors. This fuels trader uncertainty over his capacity to consolidate power during stalled ceasefire talks and ahead of the US War Powers Resolution's 60-day mark on May 1, alongside IRGC dominance in decision-making.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$12,240,305 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
April 30
<1%
May 31
14%
June 30
20%
December 31
41%
$12,240,305 Vol.
April 30
$5,116,567 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$1,139,841 Vol.
14%
June 30
$712,234 Vol.
20%
December 31
$2,043,953 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader role shifted dramatically in March 2026 after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes, with the Assembly of Experts naming his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor amid IRGC pressure. Mojtaba sustained severe facial burns impairing speech and leg injuries necessitating multiple surgeries and a prospective prosthetic, keeping him absent from public view for over seven weeks; statements, including a defiant April 30 vow to safeguard nuclear and missile capabilities, are relayed via state TV anchors. This fuels trader uncertainty over his capacity to consolidate power during stalled ceasefire talks and ahead of the US War Powers Resolution's 60-day mark on May 1, alongside IRGC dominance in decision-making.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$12,240,305End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader role shifted dramatically in March 2026 after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes, with the Assembly of Experts naming his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor amid IRGC pressure. Mojtaba sustained severe facial burns impairing speech and leg injuries necessitating multiple surgeries and a prospective prosthetic, keeping him absent from public view for over seven weeks; statements, including a defiant April 30 vow to safeguard nuclear and missile capabilities, are relayed via state TV anchors. This fuels trader uncertainty over his capacity to consolidate power during stalled ceasefire talks and ahead of the US War Powers Resolution's 60-day mark on May 1, alongside IRGC dominance in decision-making.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,240,305End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Supreme Leader role shifted dramatically in March 2026 after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes, with the Assembly of Experts naming his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor amid IRGC pressure. Mojtaba sustained severe facial burns impairing speech and leg injuries necessitating multiple surgeries and a prospective prosthetic, keeping him absent from public view for over seven weeks; statements, including a defiant April 30 vow to safeguard nuclear and missile capabilities, are relayed via state TV anchors. This fuels trader uncertainty over his capacity to consolidate power during stalled ceasefire talks and ahead of the US War Powers Resolution's 60-day mark on May 1, alongside IRGC dominance in decision-making.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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