Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, triggering the Islamic Republic's second leadership transition since 1979. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as his successor in early March amid wartime conditions and strikes on clerical institutions, establishing a new supreme leader through constitutional processes involving an interim council. Subsequent reports of Mojtaba's injury or incapacity, combined with tensions between President Masoud Pezeshkian and IRGC commanders over decision-making authority, have sustained questions about regime stability and potential further shifts. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations and domestic pressures add variables that could influence any additional leadership developments before late 2026 resolution windows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$17,471,880 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de junio
3%
31 de diciembre
19%
$17,471,880 Vol.
30 de junio
$2,972,658 Vol.
3%
31 de diciembre
$2,891,662 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, triggering the Islamic Republic's second leadership transition since 1979. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as his successor in early March amid wartime conditions and strikes on clerical institutions, establishing a new supreme leader through constitutional processes involving an interim council. Subsequent reports of Mojtaba's injury or incapacity, combined with tensions between President Masoud Pezeshkian and IRGC commanders over decision-making authority, have sustained questions about regime stability and potential further shifts. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations and domestic pressures add variables that could influence any additional leadership developments before late 2026 resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volumen
$17,471,880Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, triggering the Islamic Republic's second leadership transition since 1979. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as his successor in early March amid wartime conditions and strikes on clerical institutions, establishing a new supreme leader through constitutional processes involving an interim council. Subsequent reports of Mojtaba's injury or incapacity, combined with tensions between President Masoud Pezeshkian and IRGC commanders over decision-making authority, have sustained questions about regime stability and potential further shifts. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations and domestic pressures add variables that could influence any additional leadership developments before late 2026 resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$17,471,880Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, triggering the Islamic Republic's second leadership transition since 1979. The Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as his successor in early March amid wartime conditions and strikes on clerical institutions, establishing a new supreme leader through constitutional processes involving an interim council. Subsequent reports of Mojtaba's injury or incapacity, combined with tensions between President Masoud Pezeshkian and IRGC commanders over decision-making authority, have sustained questions about regime stability and potential further shifts. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations and domestic pressures add variables that could influence any additional leadership developments before late 2026 resolution windows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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