Latest numerical weather prediction models from European and global ensembles indicate a peak surface temperature in Warsaw of 28–29°C on June 9, driven by a warm southerly flow under partly cloudy skies and modest daytime heating. This consensus aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 29°C outcome at 51% implied probability, followed by 28°C at 24%, reflecting traders’ assessment of ensemble spread and typical model bias in early-summer boundary-layer forecasts. Historical June maxima in Warsaw average near 22°C, so the current setup represents a significant positive anomaly sustained by limited cloud cover and weak advection of cooler maritime air. Updated model runs through the morning are expected to refine the exact maximum, with any shift in insolation or timing of cloud build-up capable of moving the outcome between the tightly clustered 28–30°C resolutions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on June 9?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 9?
29°C 52%
28°C 26%
30°C 14%
27°C 7%
$20,154 Vol.
$20,154 Vol.
Jun 9, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
7%
28°C
26%
29°C
52%
30°C
14%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 52%
28°C 26%
30°C 14%
27°C 7%
$20,154 Vol.
$20,154 Vol.
Jun 9, 2026
24°C or below
$1,940 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,477 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,973 Vol.
1%
27°C
$3,221 Vol.
7%
28°C
$2,069 Vol.
26%
29°C
$2,945 Vol.
52%
30°C
$2,207 Vol.
14%
31°C
$2,285 Vol.
1%
32°C
$909 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$429 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$329 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from European and global ensembles indicate a peak surface temperature in Warsaw of 28–29°C on June 9, driven by a warm southerly flow under partly cloudy skies and modest daytime heating. This consensus aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 29°C outcome at 51% implied probability, followed by 28°C at 24%, reflecting traders’ assessment of ensemble spread and typical model bias in early-summer boundary-layer forecasts. Historical June maxima in Warsaw average near 22°C, so the current setup represents a significant positive anomaly sustained by limited cloud cover and weak advection of cooler maritime air. Updated model runs through the morning are expected to refine the exact maximum, with any shift in insolation or timing of cloud build-up capable of moving the outcome between the tightly clustered 28–30°C resolutions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 7, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$20,154End Date
Jun 9, 2026Market Opened
Jun 7, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from European and global ensembles indicate a peak surface temperature in Warsaw of 28–29°C on June 9, driven by a warm southerly flow under partly cloudy skies and modest daytime heating. This consensus aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 29°C outcome at 51% implied probability, followed by 28°C at 24%, reflecting traders’ assessment of ensemble spread and typical model bias in early-summer boundary-layer forecasts. Historical June maxima in Warsaw average near 22°C, so the current setup represents a significant positive anomaly sustained by limited cloud cover and weak advection of cooler maritime air. Updated model runs through the morning are expected to refine the exact maximum, with any shift in insolation or timing of cloud build-up capable of moving the outcome between the tightly clustered 28–30°C resolutions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,154End Date
Jun 9, 2026Market Opened
Jun 7, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models from European and global ensembles indicate a peak surface temperature in Warsaw of 28–29°C on June 9, driven by a warm southerly flow under partly cloudy skies and modest daytime heating. This consensus aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 29°C outcome at 51% implied probability, followed by 28°C at 24%, reflecting traders’ assessment of ensemble spread and typical model bias in early-summer boundary-layer forecasts. Historical June maxima in Warsaw average near 22°C, so the current setup represents a significant positive anomaly sustained by limited cloud cover and weak advection of cooler maritime air. Updated model runs through the morning are expected to refine the exact maximum, with any shift in insolation or timing of cloud build-up capable of moving the outcome between the tightly clustered 28–30°C resolutions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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